The agreement between the United States and Venezuela under which the US side would gain majority control over more than 65 billion barrels of proven oil reserves could become not only Washington’s largest energy deal, but also a new tool for influencing global oil prices. The agreement takes on particular significance against the backdrop of the ongoing war in Ukraine and the escalation surrounding Iran, both of which are increasing uncertainty in energy markets and making prices more sensitive to potential changes in supply volumes. In this context, control over Venezuela’s resources – the country with the world’s largest proven oil reserves – gives the U.S. the ability to influence crude oil supply beyond its own borders.
President Donald Trump called the agreement “the biggest oil deal in world history.” “The United States of America has just entered into an Agreement with the Country of Venezuela on, the biggest oil deal in world history! ... we secured majority U.S. control of more than 65 billion barrels of proven Oil Reserves in Venezuela, at no cost to the American Taxpayer,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. The scale of the announced agreement is particularly striking when compared with Venezuela’s overall reserves. According to available data, the country holds around 303 billion barrels of proven oil reserves.
This means the deal would give the U.S. control over more than one-fifth of this enormous resource base. Until now, U.S. influence on the global energy market has largely been based on domestic production, while a substantial share of the world’s largest oil resources remained outside direct American control. The Venezuelan agreement changes this dynamic.
Under the announced terms, the U.S. side could receive around a 55% effective production entitlement from the development of 17 strategic fields. The concessions are reportedly structured for 100 years, while the U.S. side would have the right to guaranteed offtake of oil at cost. It is this combination of factors that gives the agreement broader geopolitical significance.
The U.S. would gain not simply access to Venezuelan oil, but a long-term mechanism for participating in the management of its production and supply. At the same time, Venezuela’s current production remains far below the potential implied by its resource base. The country produces around 1.25 million barrels of oil per day despite holding approximately 303 billion barrels of proven reserves.
Years of underinvestment, sanctions, aging infrastructure and technological constraints have prevented Venezuela from realizing a significant portion of its potential. This is where the main strategic interest for the U.S. emerges. If American capital can restore infrastructure and increase production, additional volumes of oil could enter the global market, with those resources effectively falling within the sphere of U.S. influence.
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