With Election Day just hours away, Newsweek has identified 10 House races featuring vulnerable incumbents, returning challengers and contrasting electorates that could reveal both who controls the chamber and how large the winning majority becomes. Democrats need a net gain of three seats to overturn the Republicans’ 220-215 majority. Inside Elections now projects Democratic gains of 20 to 30 seats; this suggests the late question may be less whether the House changes hands than how far the battlefield expands.
Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, told Newsweek it would be "an utter shock if Republicans held the House at this point." "A lot of these districts were really close in 2024," Kondik said after reviewing the races featured on Newsweek’s list. He added that a more Democratic national environment should allow the party to capture some narrowly lost seats and threaten Republican incumbents elsewhere. Some of these races could help Democrats secure the 218 seats needed for control.
Others would probably change hands only if the party is having an exceptionally strong night. Costas Panagopoulos, a distinguished professor of political science at Northeastern University, told Newsweek that such a wave would involve "a significant number of competitive races moving in a similar direction across a diversity of states and districts." Midterm elections have historically created difficulties for the president’s party, but House control is determined across 435 separate districts. Candidate strength, local political geography and redrawn boundaries can therefore interrupt a national trend.
Former television anchor Janelle Stelson is again challenging Republican Scott Perry, the former House Freedom Caucus chair who defeated her by approximately 5,100 votes in 2024. It is widely considered one of the most critical battlegrounds of the midterms. The Harrisburg-area district has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+3, yet Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate it Lean Democratic.
A New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena Research Institute poll of 404 likely voters, conducted October 16 to 22 with a 5.7-point margin of error, found both candidates at 48 percent. Republican Ryan Mackenzie, who captured this Lehigh Valley seat from Democrat Susan Wild by roughly 4,000 votes in 2024, faces retired Bethlehem firefighter and state union leader Bob Brooks. Both Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball lean Democratic.
The same Pennsylvania survey, but with a sample size of 401 likely voters for this district, placed Brooks ahead by 49 percent to 44 percent, although the five-point advantage was within its 5.7-point margin of error. Republican Juan Ciscomani is defending a closely divided Tucson-area district against Democrat JoAnna Mendoza, a retired Marine and veterans’ advocate who served for 20 years in the military. Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball place AZ-06 in the Lean Democratic column, while Inside Elections rates it Tilt Democratic.
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