Three weeks ago, this College Football Playoff prognosticator surveyed the upcoming schedule and saw two paths forming. "Clarity is coming," I wrote, "Or maybe it's more confusion." Door Number Two is where we stand days before the calendar turns to November. The last two weeks have brought big upsets and little clarity around which teams are legitimately good.
The SEC, in particular, has turned into a confusing mess for the selection committee to sort through ahead of the group's first rankings next week. Just look at the top 25 this week -- the SEC has No. 3 Georgia and then four teams ranked from No. 9 to No. 12 and the three teams ranked from No. 15 to No. 17. The conference has already turned into a demolition derby as top players have gone down with injuries and upsets lurk just around the corner at any given moment.
The SEC is still well-positioned to get four teams into the playoff, but brace yourself for lots of debates around the merits of three-loss SEC teams versus two-loss teams in other conferences. If the new strength-of-conference metric is given serious consideration, it should benefit the SEC. Likely range of SEC playoff teams: 3 to 5 There is more clarity in the Big Ten, which again looks top-heavy.
Ohio State and Indiana are very likely to make the 12-team College Football Playoff. Undefeated UCLA is too if it can win 11 or 12 games. After the Bruins, however, there aren't many obvious playoff contenders.
Three-loss Oregon, which just fired offensive coordinator Drew Mehringer, is all but out of the race with 5% odds. The only other teams with better than 10% odds are Northwestern (15.8%) and Nebraska (12.4%), and each is unlikely unless it upsets Ohio State. USC and Iowa have both faded hard from early playoff contention.
Likely range of Big Ten playoff teams: 2 to 3 The ACC may again be only a one-bid league (Miami) unless Wake Forest sneaks in. The 6-1 Demon Deacons are one of the first teams out of this week's projection. If Wake Forest wins out, however, which would include a victory over SMU, it'll be in the field.
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