2026 National League MVP: Expert picks for Shohei Ohtani vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong

The tightest race down the stretch isn't the NL East or the American League wild card, but rather the National League MVP, a ferocious battle between Dodgers two-way (though not for the entire season) superstar Shohei Ohtani and Cubs whiz kid Pete Crow-Armstrong. Ohtani, as ridiculous as it sounds, is having a down year. He's only hitting .287/.388/.546 with a 158 OPS+ and he's only pitched 85 ⅔ innings, albeit with a 1.79 ERA.

After knee and bicep injuries, he's expected to return to the mound soon, but will that be enough for his fourth consecutive MVP and fifth overall? Crow-Armstrong, meanwhile, is finally putting together the full breakout season he's been teasing for years. He's hitting .276/.375/.550 in his second straight 30-30 season with stellar baserunning and the best center field defense in the game.

How we value defense has long been one of the biggest questions in baseball and its answer has never been more important than this year. We won't know who wins until November, but your CBS Sports experts have placed their (hypothetical) votes now. Mike Axisa: I would vote for PCA if the voting were held today (note: I don't have an NL MVP vote this year).

The offensive performance is comparable, though I would give PCA a slight edge in that department because his baserunning is among the best in the game. Ohtani's 14 pitching starts were excellent and incredibly valuable. Are they more valuable than PCA's 1,100 innings of arguably the best defense at any position in the sport?

If PCA were "just" an above-average defender, I'd go Ohtani, but his defense is outrageously good. I reserve the right to change my mind over the next five weeks. As of today, I'd go with PCA. (Who would even be third in the voting?

Corbin Carroll or James Wood? This is a two-man race all the way.) Kate Feldman: If Ohtani comes back and pitches like we know he can down the stretch, this becomes a slightly different conversation, but right now, it's PCA. I have my problems with defensive metrics but I don't need an Outs Above Average leaderboard or fielding run value to measure Crow-Armstrong's impact out there.