In recent years, we've been treated to some incredible WNBA MVP races. The three-way duel in 2023 between Breanna Stewart, Alyssa Thomas and A'ja Wilson, which saw Stewart win despite not getting the most first-place votes, may never be topped. And just last season, we saw Wilson pull off a remarkable late turnaround to overtake Napheesa Collier and go back-to-back.
The 2026 race has not provided that level of drama. Wilson, who is attempting to win a fifth MVP and become the first player in league history to threepeat, has been the favorite since the preseason and has not faced the usual level of competition from her closest peers over the last three to five seasons. Collier, who finished second in each of the last two seasons, underwent surgery on both ankles in the offseason and didn't return until late July.
She has only played 15 games, and while the WNBA does not have a games played threshold to qualify for major awards like the NBA, Collier has not played anywhere near enough to be in consideration. Thomas, who has finished third, fifth, second and fourth, respectively, in the last four seasons, didn't even make the All-Star Game this season. While she's still filling up the stat sheet and may lead the league in assists for the second consecutive season, she hasn't delivered her usual impact and the Phoenix Mercury have long been eliminated from the playoffs.
In fact, the Mercury are the first team since 2008 (also the Mercury) to miss the playoffs in the season immediately following a Finals appearance. Stewart, for her part, has been terrific in a bounce-back season after injuries kept her out of the MVP discussion last season, ending a streak of five consecutive top-three finishes. But Stewart's New York Liberty, who were the preseason title favorites, have disappointed and sit in eighth place.
That's not Stewart's fault, but there has only been one instance in WNBA history -- Lauren Jackson in 2007, when Seattle Storm had the seventh-best record -- when a player won MVP while their team had worse than the fifth-best record. That won't change this season. Stewart will make numerous ballots, but she's not going to win MVP.
So who has pushed Wilson this season? And has anyone done enough to dethrone her? I am once again honored to be an official awards voter.
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