The survey found that 43 percent of registered voters view their congressional vote as a way to signal opposition to the president, the highest level recorded in NBC News polling conducted ahead of a midterm election in the last three decades. Meanwhile, 27 percent said their vote would show a signal of support to the president. In comparison, then-President Joe Biden faced a 35 percent "signal of opposition" ahead of the 2022 midterms and during Trump's first term, the president had 38 percent opposition, the survey showed.
The poll also displayed that economic concerns and dissatisfaction with the Iran war also appear to be weighing on voters, with 55 percent saying Trump's policies have hurt the economy and 57 percent saying they are less likely to support a candidate who is in favor of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The Iran war has emerged as a political liability for the administration, with voters increasingly linking the conflict to higher gas prices and rising living costs. The White House has argued that polling does not reflect the full impact of Trump's agenda.
In a previous statement to Newsweek, White House spokesperson Davis Ingle said: "No other president in history has accomplished more for the American people than President Trump, who is working tirelessly to create jobs, cool inflation, increase housing affordability, and more." He added that Trump's agenda was still taking effect and that the administration had already made "historic progress" both domestically and internationally. The NBC News poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters between September 11-15 via a mix of telephone interviews and an online survey sent via text message. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Newsweek reached out to the White House by email Sunday for comment. According to the NBC News survey, Trump's approval rating stands at 41 percent among registered voters, a second-term low in the network's polling, while 56 percent disapprove of his job performance. The survey also found that 55 percent of voters believe Trump's policies have hurt the economy, up from 48 percent in March.
Despite those headwinds for Republicans, the race for Congress remains relatively competitive. According to the poll, Democrats hold a 50 percent to 45 percent advantage on the generic congressional ballot, a five-point lead that is smaller than the party's 12-point edge at a comparable point before the 2018 midterms when Democrats won control of the House during Trump's first term. The poll also found growing concerns about the economy and inflation, long considered Republican strengths.
NBC News reported that the GOP's traditional advantage on handling economic issues has largely disappeared as voters continue to cite rising costs as a top concern. More than six in 10 voters surveyed said the recent Iran conflict was not worth its costs, reflecting broader dissatisfaction with the political and economic landscape heading into the election. Republican pollster Bill McInturff, whose firm conducted the survey alongside Democratic firm Hart Research Associates, said the midterm environment presents a clash between unfavorable national political trends for Republicans and electoral maps that remain favorable to the GOP, particularly in Senate races.
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