Oklahoma's rally from 10-point deficit to stun No. 1 Texas 27-24 on a last-second field goal on Saturday brought a reminder of what college football is all about. Records be darned, rivalry showdowns bring out the sport's insanity and create outcomes an algorithm would never forecast But if there's a redeeming thought for Texas fans to cling to amidst the agony of a loss to Oklahoma that never should have happened, it's this: the Longhorns still have margin for error in their quest to reach the College Football Playoff. The CBS Sports College Football Playoff Forecaster projects Texas with a 66.8% chance to reach the CFP, even after losing to the Sooners.
That's because the Longhorns will still have a case for at-large inclusion even if they arrive at Selection Sunday with three losses, which is a distinct possibility. While the admission of a three-loss team would be a first in the 12-team playoff era, Texas would be a likely candidate to set the precedent if it winds up going 9-3. Four of Texas' next five games are against opponents who will be ranked in the Week 7 AP poll.
Six of the Longhorns' final seven contests are against teams that have been ranked among the top 16 at some point this season. If Texas doesn't get more buttoned up soon, Saturday's defeat won't be its last. But the Longhorns hold a trump card in the form of a Week 2 win over No. 5 Ohio State that won't be depreciating in value anytime soon.
A year ago, Vanderbilt was left out of the 12-team playoff as a 2-loss SEC team. So, would the Longhorns definitely be safe at 10-2? The CBS Sports CFP Forecaster projects a 2-loss Longhorns team with a 100% chance of making the playoff.
The cumulative value of Texas' 10 wins would be significantly better than the overall value of Vanderbilt's 10 wins from last season. The Commodores had no victories over teams that finished in the top 25 of the final CFP rankings. If Texas finishes 10-2, it will almost certainly have multiple victories over teams ranked by the CFP committee.
There would be no doubt about the Longhorns' CFP candidacy at 10-2. Texas entered Week 6 with a commanding lead in a resume ranking based on the CBS Sports 138. It won't be falling far in that metric after taking a neutral-site loss against an Oklahoma team that will likely rank inside the top 40 of next week's CBS Sports 138.
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