Sanaa, Yemen – When news broke on October 5 that Yemen’s internationally recognised government was launching a major new offensive to take control of territories held by Houthi fighters, Mohammed Ahmed began to prepare for the worst. Sanaa has been under Houthi control since late 2014 after the Houthis seized the capital city in the initial phase of a civil war that has ebbed and flowed for more than a decade. But when it announced Operation Dawn of Yemen, the new offensive, last month, Yemeni government forces, backed by a Saudi Arabia-led coalition, declared they would aim to retake control of all parts of the country held by the Houthis, including Sanaa.
Ahmed was not concerned about which side would emerge victorious. Instead, he feared the consequences of hostilities near or inside Yemen’s most densely populated city. A month after the operation began, Ahmed’s anxiety has eased as Sanaa remains largely calm, apart from recurring air strikes.
Meanwhile, the Houthis, an armed group also known as Ansar Allah (Arabic for Supporters of God), have scored territorial gains in other provinces, including Taiz and Lahij in southern Yemen, where fighting has not ceased. But while Yemenis such as Ahmed said the initial momentum surrounding Dawn of Yemen has faded, experts and researchers view the operation as marking a new phase in a war of attrition that shows no signs of easing. Turki al-Goblan, head of the Saudi Daimumah Center for Studies, told Al Jazeera that the Houthis have survived in previous years by adapting to strikes and leveraging complex geography, clandestine supply and concealment networks, and the use of civilians as human shields.
That survival strategy is now under stress. The Dawn of Yemen offensive has “dealt a blow to the three pillars of this strategy”, al-Goblan said. The first pillar, according to him, is the fuel and supply system, which keeps Houthi combat vehicles moving, transports ammunition and delivers reinforcements.
Second, the operation has hit the Houthis in the maritime areas around the Bab al-Mandeb strait and the western coast, which serve as outlets through which alternative external supply routes pass. Bab al-Mandeb connects the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea and is a major waterway through which Saudi Arabia exports its oil and Asian economies, such as China, ship commodities to Europe. Third, some of the tribes surrounding Sanaa have begun declaring mobilisation in support of the internationally recognised Yemeni government, undermining the Iran-backed Houthis’ reliance on them.
He argued that the pace of attrition has exceeded the Houthis’ ability to recover. This is the scenario I consider more likely.” Since seizing Sanaa in September 2014, the Houthis have taken control of much of northern and western Yemen. Since then, the conflict has remained unresolved.
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