For years, Europe’s far right appeared to face a choice: Moderate, or remain on the margins. The Alternative for Germany party’s landslide victory in Saxony-Anhalt suggests there may be a third option — radicalize and win. The party’s performance in last weekend’s election, where it raked in 44% of the vote, shattered a widely shared illusion among the European mainstream that the far right was somehow destined to mellow on its way to power.
That has broadly been the path taken by Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and France’s Marine Le Pen. The Italian prime minister’s tilt to the mainstream, especially when it comes to the EU and NATO, has given a name to the phenomenon: “Melonization.” Le Pen, for her part, has spent years “de-demonizing” her party, dropping calls to leave the EU and distancing the party from Russia after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. The AfD has moved in the opposite direction, doubling down on anti-immigration, anti-Islam rhetoric and its pro-Russian stance — and still surging at the ballot box.
With the far right polling strongly ahead of major elections expected this year and next in Sweden, France, Spain, Poland and Italy, the AfD’s breakthrough is reverberating far beyond eastern Germany. It raises a more troubling possibility for Europe’s establishment: that the next wave of populist challengers may see less reason to emulate Meloni or Le Pen — and more incentive to copy the AfD. The election results in Saxony-Anhalt are proof that “nationalist and identitarian policies” are “exactly the kind of policy we need to win elections and save our countries,” Afonso Gonçalves, the leader of the ultranationalist Portuguese movement Reconquista, said.
The Italian former general Roberto Vannacci, who is challenging Meloni from the far-right flank she used to occupy, also cheered the win. President Donald Trump weighed in on his social media platform Truth Social: “Wow! The Populist Party in Germany just had a really big night.
They finally got tired of the absolutely horrible Immigration rules and regulations, which have hurt Germany so badly. THEY ARE ON THE RISE, and not going to take it anymore! MGGA!!!” Meanwhile, in Italy and France, Le Pen and Meloni have abstained from commenting.
The schism is not a new one. France’s National Rally broke with the AfD in the lead-up to the 2024 European Parliament election over comments by the German party’s lead candidates minimizing membership in the Nazi SS paramilitary organization. Following the vote in Saxony-Anhalt, Jean-Philippe Tanguy, a member of Parliament with the National Rally, told French television he was “shocked” that so many “voted for people who downplay Germany’s Nazi past.” By contrast, the AfD has surged to success in part by empowering some of its most radical figures.
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