Nearly half of those surveyed by state pollster FOM say a sense of alarm is the prevailing mood among the people around them. According to data by independent pollster ExtremeScan, 60% of Russians believe that the war against Ukraine has had negative consequences for their day-to-day lives. "Anxiety and war fatigue are driven by increasing uncertainty," Margarita Zavadskaya, a sociologist and senior research fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs in Helsinki, told DW.
She says this year has seen a shift in public opinion. Rising prices, internet crackdowns, fuel shortages caused by Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries and rumors of another mobilization drive are making it harder for Russians to plan for the future. Some are even leaving the country, afraid they could be drafted after the elections.
Sociologist and the founder of ExtremeScan Elena Koneva said people were starting to ask the question: "How much does this war cost me and my family? And am I ready to pay this price? " That could pose a problem for the Kremlin.
From September 18 to 20, Russians are voting for a new parliament (the State Duma) for the first time since 2022. It's the first parliamentary election to take place in Russia during the Ukraine war. And although there are unlikely to be any surprises in the official results, the Kremlin will be closely monitoring turnout.
"The Kremlin is confident it can fabricate whatever figures it needs. The question is how high of a price it will have to pay," said Zavadskaya. Although elections in authoritarian systems like that of Russian President Vladimir Putin have little to do with democratic change, they still serve an important purpose.
They are a reality check on whether the population remains loyal. And for Putin, that is especially important right now. "They are crucial for him because they demonstrate that the majority supports the main party, the party of war, and that he has legitimacy for further escalation and the continuation of this war," Russian opposition politician in exile Ilya Yashin told DW.
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