Abdul El-Sayed was dealt a polling blow in the Michigan Senate race, with a new survey showing him trailing former Representative Mike Rogers by a single point, a statistical tie, in the battleground state. The new Glengariff Group poll highlights how competitive the Michigan Senate race is. Democratic Senator Gary Peters’ retirement left the seat open in the state that backed President Donald Trump by about two points in 2024.
Democrats believe the national environment, driven by Trump’s poor approval ratings and frustration over the economy, will help carry El-Sayed, a progressive backed by Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, across the finish line. Republicans, however, believe El-Sayed’s left-wing policies could alienate moderates and give them a chance to flip the seat this November. The Michigan Senate race also carries key implications for the progressive movement.
Some Democrats have cast doubt on whether progressives like El-Sayed can win in competitive states like Michigan and that more centrist candidates are more suited to purple areas. El-Sayed's candidacy will test whether the progressive wave that has swept over the Democratic primaries can translate to the general election electorate in a state that voted for Trump. Newsweek reached out to the El-Sayed and Rogers campaigns for comment via email.
The new poll, published in The Detroit News, showed a statistical tie in the Michigan Senate race. Rogers received 45.8 percent support in the poll, while 44.4 percent of respondents said they would vote for El-Sayed. Nine percent of respondents were still undecided, the poll found.
Among independent voters, a critical voting bloc in the state, El-Sayed led by 14 points, according to the poll. However, among those who are “definitely” going to vote, El-Sayed held a slight lead, 46.7 percent to 44.4 percent. El-Sayed’s favorability rating is 8 points underwater, with 42 percent viewing him unfavorably and 34 percent favorably.
Meanwhile, Rogers is 9 points underwater, 28 percent viewing him favorably and 37 percent unfavorably, the poll found. But among independents, 43.5 percent viewed El-Sayed unfavorably, and 29 percent viewed Rogers unfavorably. It surveyed 600 likely general election voters in Michigan from August 31 to September 3, 2026.
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