Democrat Abdul El-Sayed has led all but one post-primary poll of Michigan's U.S. Senate race despite backlash from some in his party following his victory over Representative Haley Stevens last month. Michigan’s Senate race is expected to be among the most competitive of the 2026 midterm elections.
Democratic Senator Gary Peters is retiring at the end of his term, opening a seat in a battleground state that backed President Donald Trump by about 2 points in 2024. El-Sayed led former Representative Mike Rogers by 5 points among likely voters in a new poll released Tuesday by the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research at Michigan State University. Fifty percent of likely voters said they planned to vote for El-Sayed, compared to 45 percent for Rogers, according to the poll, which surveyed 779 likely voters August 10-20.
Democrats nominated El-Sayed, a progressive public health official whose candidacy has drawn scrutiny from more establishment-aligned members of his party, while Republicans picked Rogers, a former congressman endorsed by Trump. Turnout is going to be key to the outcome of the race that will help determine control of the upper chamber of Congress, Marjorie Sarbaugh-Thompson, professor of political science at Wayne State University, told Newsweek on Tuesday. Is there going to be a blue wave as there was at the midterms during Trump's first term [2018]?” she said.
Polling, which has been within the margin of error, suggests Michigan “is going to be a close election,” she said. Forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball view the race as a pure toss-up. In addition to the Michigan State University poll, other recent surveys show El-Sayed with a lead.
El-Sayed has struggled to consolidate support from more centrist Democrats, with some moderates in the party saying they are not going to support his candidacy. New Jersey Representative Josh Gottheimer told CNN there is “no way I’m ever coming out for El-Sayed, right now.” Representative Hillary Scholten, a Democrat representing the Grand Rapids, Michigan, area, declined to endorse El-Sayed because of his ties to Piker, a streamer who has become a lightning rod for controversy and criticism among establishment-aligned Democrats. Piker recently drew backlash after remarks that if American Jews “keep putting this idea out there that they are singularly invested in Israel,” someone will “come around and take action” against them, adding that it is “dangerous” for them.
The comments drew a wave of criticism toward Piker and El-Sayed. Jeremy Moss, a state senator running for Congress in a suburban Detroit district, afterward wrote in a statement that there is “still work ahead to unite our ticket despite our differences.” “I will not be lectured by a California podcaster about what Oakland County, Michigan's Jewish community should and shouldn't believe,” he wrote. El-Sayed wrote in a statement that he believes “all Americans deserve the right to advocate for what they believe without fear of violence.” “My commitment to Jewish safety is the same as my commitment to the safety of my own daughters," he wrote.
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