The rugby league World Cup has reached the knockout stage and, from afar, it is business as usual for the Kangaroos. Three wins from three matches. Pursuing the trophy for the fourth consecutive time.
In front of home fans, the humdrum front-runners are the team to beat at this tournament, again. But there are dark skies on the horizon, a little rumbling underfoot. At the advent of the semi-finals, three hungry squads oozing with top-level talent await in the final four, with not so much chips on their shoulders as huge, 1990s-style potato wedges.
The momentum of each is building, the narrative incomplete. Inside the Australia camp, there is the pressure on nice guy coach Kevin Walters, and the Kangaroos’ forward pack humbled in the tournament so far. Then there is the free agent frenzy that will dominate this week’s lead-up; distraction as fertiliser to seeds of doubt.
There is little to gain and much to lose for the hosts as they prepare for Sunday’s semi-final against Samoa at Allianz Stadium in Sydney, and they have more than one cause for concern. Tonga’s spectacular win against Samoa in Parramatta on Sunday was the tournament’s finest spectacle – eclipsing the wild encounter between France and Lebanon that preceded it – with a capacity crowd and thousands of flags creating a carnival atmosphere for the clash of two frenemies. This was more than just elite entertainment, however.
That the players of both sides committed themselves for the duration of the intense 80 minutes, even though a semi-final had already been locked in, underscores the level of motivation within these proud squads. The disallowed Samoan try in the dying stages suggests that either of the teams will provide a test for the Kangaroos. Both boast several players that would be comfortable in the green and gold.
Toa Samoa’s Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow might not have ousted Reece Walsh or James Tedesco at fullback, but he would have almost certainly added to his six caps for the Kangaroos had he chosen to continue with Australia. Brian To’o has in recent years been the NRL’s top winger, and Stephen Crichton the benchmark centre, even if both have been slightly off their peak in 2026. Tonga have the best half in rugby league since Nathan Cleary’s injury, Isaiya Katoa, and the Dally M centre of the year in Rob Toia.
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