Last year, through four games, Baker Mayfield was looking like an MVP candidate, and the Buccaneers were 3-1. The Colts were also 3-1, and Daniel Jones was not only putting up even better numbers than Mayfield, but putting up some of the best numbers in the league -- one of the most out-of-nowhere quarterback surprises in recent memory. On the other side, the Panthers were 1-3 and coming off a 26-10 shellacking courtesy of the Jaguars.
The Texans were also 1-3. Both of those teams made the postseason. Of course, there are plenty of early signs that prove true, too.
The Bills and Eagles were the only undefeated teams through four weeks last year, and both were playoff teams. The Saints, Titans and Jets -- all 0-4 at this point last year -- ended up continuing their poor play and landing top-10 picks. What we can say for sure is that it's early.
The standings of today will look very different one month from now, let alone three months from now when the regular season wraps up. Still, with four games down, we've seen enough to hand out first-quarter grades to every team, taking into account not just their record, but how they've looked getting there and how that projects moving forward. We'll start with the AFC today and move to the NFC on Wednesday.
The Bills came out gangbusters with wins over the Texans in Houston and against the Lions on a short week, totaling 77 points in the win. But the nagging turnover issues hit the last two weeks -- five in a narrow Week 3 win over the Chargers and two more in a Week 4 loss to the Patriots. Familiar issues on defense are rearing their ugly head, too: Buffalo is 30th in defensive per play and 29th in defensive success rate.
This looks like a playoff team once again, but unless the same old issues get fixed, it won't be a Super Bowl team. Recency bias helps the Patriots here, with a Week 4 win over the Bills propping up what has otherwise been a lackluster start. The Patriots missed a prime opportunity to open the season with a win, but Drake Maye threw three interceptions in a loss to the Drew Lock-led Seahawks that included A.J.
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