The victory of far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the elections of the East German state Saxony-Anhalt is a dramatic moment for Germany. The party won 44 percent of the vote, securing 39 seats in the 83-seat local legislature. Although this result falls short of a majority, it is close enough.
The small, populist BSW party has indicated that it may enable the election of an AfD head of government in the state. This would give executive power to an extreme-right party in a German state for the first time since World War 2. The election has already deeply disturbed Germany.
It is the culmination of a decade-long process that saw the AfD move from a marginal protest party to a major political power. Although this election has been a tough blow for the other mainstream German parties, they still have an opportunity to reverse this dangerous trend. That would depend on whether those in power are prepared to take decisive action.
When considering what strategy must be adopted in response to AfD’s surge, it is important to explore the attitudes of its electorate and the socioeconomic conditions affecting them. In recent surveys, conducted by the think thank I co-lead, d|part, people in Saxony-Anhalt were much more likely than the national average to report job prospects, education, health care and the social environment worsening where they live. The mismatch between public demands for better economic opportunities and social services and what the government has delivered has resulted in the anger that the AfD has been able to exploit.
While AfD’s proposed policies in Saxony-Anhalt could worsen socioeconomic problems, many voters do not see an alternative. Their trust in the parties in power has eroded too much. According to our surveys, roughly three quarters of AfD voters do not consider any other party as a viable option at all.
Among supporters of other parties, more than half could name at least one other political option they would also consider. In short, most AfD voters are firmly and distinctively committed to the party. Among those committed AfD voters, there are many who firmly agree with the extreme right and racist positions of the party.
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