President Donald Trump carried Alaska by double digits in 2016, 2020 and 2024. Republicans have held both of the state's Senate seats and the governor's office for most of the past two decades. That history is now colliding with a Senate race Republicans are struggling to put away, a 17-candidate governor's field splintering their own base, and a president whose standing in the state has slipped enough that strategists on both sides are recalculating their odds.
Alaska Senator Dan Sullivan, a Republican first elected in 2014, is fighting to hold his seat against Democrat Mary Peltola, the former U.S. representative trying to become the state's first Democratic senator since Mark Begich lost to Sullivan in the 2014 midterms. Peltola is also the only Democrat to win statewide in Alaska since Begich's 2008 Senate victory, a fact both campaigns are using to make opposite arguments. Her campaign says Peltola has already proved she can win statewide, while Sullivan's argues her victory was an exception the state is unlikely to repeat.
Down the ballot, a wide-open governor's race and mounting frustration over federal spending cuts have widened the opening even further. Brandon Boylan, a political science professor at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, called the Sullivan-Peltola race genuinely competitive, with Peltola holding a real chance of winning it outright. "Party affiliation isn't everything" in Alaska, Boylan said.
The state consistently backs Republicans for president, he said, but has elected Democrats and independents to other offices before, pointing to Begich's single Senate term and to independent Governor Bill Walker, who served from 2014 to 2018. Alaska Survey Research has tracked the Senate race monthly since January, and Peltola has led in every wave, typically by 2 to 7 points. Her most recent edge, in a poll of 1,371 likely voters conducted August 2-5, was 51 percent to 49 percent.
Only one survey has shown Sullivan ahead: a New York Times/Siena University poll conducted June 15-29, which had him up 47 percent to 45 percent. Boylan noted that Peltola's lead has narrowed over the past several months, even as she's stayed in front. Prediction markets show a similar picture.
Polymarket recently gave Peltola a 52 percent chance of winning the seat outright. Kalshi's contracts, updated August 13, put her at 55 percent, compared with 47 percent for Sullivan. Republicans, however, are still investing heavily in the race.
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