Albertans are just one day away from deciding whether to take a first step towards independence, something that would have widespread repercussions for the province, Canada, the United States and much of the Western world. Independence advocates argue that a break from Canada would free the oil-rich province from regulations—namely environmental ones—that they contend hamper its energy industry and economic growth. They see Alberta’s oil and gas producers, farmers and taxpayers as the winners of an independence scenario.
Ottawa, which would lose a province responsible for nearly a quarter of Canada’s merchandise exports, if independence was achieved, is vehemently against it. Prime Minister Mark Carney has argued that Albertan independence would be dangerous for the Canada that remains, and for Alberta itself, saying it would “lead to years of deep uncertainty and lost opportunities” for the province. The U.S. would also be affected.
Although independence advocates have rejected the idea of becoming part of the U.S., an independent Alberta, and its energy resources, could reshape its economic and political relationship with Washington. Monday’s referendum, announced by Alberta Premier Danielle Smith in May, will not automatically trigger secession, it will ask Albertans whether to begin the process by holding a binding referendum. But even a positive result on a non-binding referendum will have far-reaching consequences, three experts told Newsweek.
It would “create enormous investor uncertainty, as many energy companies would face regulatory uncertainty about the outcome of separation, and it would raise many concerns about existing and planned new energy infrastructure,” Werner Antweiler, an associate professor specializing in international trade and finance at the University of British Columbia, said. The Alberta Prosperity Project (APP), a leading separatist group that helped drive the campaign for a referendum, argues that oil and gas producers in the province would benefit from less restrictive environmental rules and project approval requirements, a major gripe separatists have with Ottawa. Its draft fiscal plan speculates that Alberta could expand oil and gas production through simplified regulation.
University of Calgary professor Jennifer Winter told Newsweek that an independent Alberta could indeed choose not to replace existing federal environmental protections while allowing projects to proceed. Similarly, independence advocates argue that farmers and ranchers would reap the rewards of control over regulation and research funding, with agricultural policies designed specifically for Alberta. In the APP’s farmer’s booklet, the group argues independence would increase investment, improve export routes by “encouraging new rail capacity and competition” and allow Alberta to negotiate trade agreements aimed at reducing tariffs on its agricultural exports.
The APP argues that retaining revenue currently collected by Ottawa would allow an independent Alberta to cut taxes and improve services—its draft fiscal plan proposes eliminating personal income tax and setting corporate income tax at 10 percent, alongside a 5 percent Alberta sales tax. However, it's important to note these are campaign proposals, not guaranteed policies. If Alberta became more dependent on America’s markets and export routes, Washington could gain more leverage.
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