"Vote like Canada depends on it," Prime Minister Mark Carney declared to cheering crowds in Calgary last week on a stage emblazoned with bright red and white "Forever Canadian" banners. It's a message that appears to have struck a chord with the electorate, as preliminary results show more than two-thirds of Alberta voters said they want to remain a part of Canada. But the future of the federation does still rest on its richest province.
Alberta, with most of Canada's proven oil reserves and abundant gas and mineral wealth, is playing a pivotal role in Ottawa's drive to survive a punishing trade war with the US by diversifying trade, strengthening its economy, and forging new alliances on the other side of the world. Carney, the former central banker who grew up in Alberta, is now Canada's builder-in-chief – at home, and beyond its borders. Note the emphasis in his first statement after Monday's vote on separation in the province, as soon as the scale of the victory was clear: "They chose unity, to build together, and to take care of each other." Albertans' overwhelming "yes" to stay in Canada gives him political bricks and mortar, too.
"Don't mess with Canada," warned Thomas Lukaszuk, a former lawmaker whose Forever Canadian campaign played a key role in this referendum's outcome. Addressing elated supporters in Edmonton, the provincial capital, as the "yes" count for Canada kept tumbling in, Lukaszuk underlined that this vote "will send a very strong message to the rest of the world". Everyone knows he's talking about the troublesome neighbour to the south – in particular its president, who keeps threatening to turn Canada into the 51st US state.
The same day Albertans were voting on their future in Canada, Trump sent his own signal north at a rally in Kansas ahead of next month's US midterm polls. "I will let you keep ice hockey, and I will let you keep your 'O Canada' national anthem," he promised before adding: "We're only kidding." In the run up to this referendum, Carney reiterated a warning he's often sounded that "there are some outside our borders who are working to break us, so they own us" – even if he didn't spell out who "they" is. And, in this defining time for the separatist camp, some in their ranks didn't hide their direction of travel.
Some of their most prominent leaders admitted they travelled to Washington three times last year to meet US State Department officials and outline what an independent Alberta could offer – including a possible oil pipeline through the US to the Pacific. But the rest of the world may take only passing notice of what was, for Canada, an historic vote sparking conversations and concerns across the country, from coast to coast to coast. "Short of a vote to separate, most foreign governments, with the exception of the United States, have little interest in domestic Canadian politics," says Professor Janice Stein, founding director of the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy at the University of Toronto.
"Foreign investors are focused on the time it will take to complete major infrastructure projects, a return on investment, and predictable regulations," she explains in a nod to Carney's long list of megaprojects he hopes will eventually turbocharge economic growth. They're all costly; many will take years to build. An ambitious blueprint already includes a proposed pipeline to the Pacific coast which opens opportunities for Alberta's oil to reach Asian markets – a move which also addresses Alberta's long-standing grievance that its economy has been stifled by federal policies, including environmental regulations.
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