Fall came early in Aroostook County, Maine — the shared birthplace of Republican Sen. Susan Collins and her Democratic challenger, Troy Jackson. By early-September, amber leaves start to greet drivers along the two-lane roads of Aroostook, the northernmost county in the contiguous U.S.
This year, a few red, white and blue campaign signs for Collins and Jackson add to the colorful display dotting U.S. Route 1 is a road both Collins and Jackson know well as it runs through both of their hometowns. Collins is from Caribou, Maine while Jackson was born in Fort Kent, about 40 miles north.
Statistically, the race between them is a toss-up, according to Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center which runs polls in Maine. Voters in Aroostook County — who supported Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2016 — could decide which home-county candidate ultimately wins. "If the rural voters come out and vote strongly, they'll likely vote for Susan Collins," Smith said.
"If Susan Collins is going to be successful, she's really going to have to get those blue collar rural voters out to the polls and that's going to be a challenge." To Smith, both Collins and Jackson face enthusiasm problems. "It probably helps Susan Collins that [Graham] Platner is not on the ticket because Jackson doesn't have that enthusiasm, doesn't bring that charisma to the race," Smith said. "But at the same time, this is going to be a good year for Democrats and there's not as much reason for Republicans to get out to vote." Jackson is a late addition to the Senate race after the original Democratic nominee, Graham Platner, dropped out following allegations of rape that he denies.
Aroostook County Republican Committee Chair Christopher Lydon isn't worried about any enthusiasm problems for Collins, noting her long record in the Senate. "I think the base is still there with [Collins] and she does a lot for the state," Lydon said sitting in the party's headquarters in Caribou. "She's been very active this time with the parades and getting out there.
So I think despite what the other side might say, I think people are there with her. I think she's got a good chance of winning again." Collins has won five Senate races. Each time, her home county has turned out for her at the polls by double-digit margins.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
