Andy Burnham has instructed the Labour party to “re-arm” to fight the Conservatives at the next election amid concern inside government that they must take the prospect of a Kemi Badenoch-led recovery seriously. Downing Street sources said the prime minister wanted Labour headquarters to refocus on the Tories as an electoral threat after more than two years of prioritising Nigel Farage’s Reform and, on their left flank, the Greens. Just because the Tories are trailing in the polls now, their trajectory is upwards and they could bounce back ahead of the election.
We can’t be complacent about our old foe,” one source said. The Conservatives took 24% of the vote at the last general election, before support dipped to 18%. But last week this had risen to 25%, according to polling from More in Common, the first time in 18 months they had exceeded their vote share at the time of their record election defeat.
Many Tory MPs who had felt their party’s situation was existential, now believed they had a route back, with Badenoch finally appearing to recognise that the economy, rather than culture wars, presented her with an opportunity, especially among core supporters. A senior Downing Street figure said Burnham did not want party officials to take their eyes off Reform – which has dipped in the polls amid ongoing scrutiny of party finances – but felt they should be planning for a potential Tory resurgence as well. A third No 10 insider told the Guardian: “Kemi is running a party base strategy with policies aimed at higher earners, mostly in the south.
It won’t be enough to win at the next election but it does put them more in contention. We need to be ready for that. We need to re-arm.” Cabinet ministers including the transport secretary, Heidi Alexander, the chief secretary to the Treasury, Emma Reynolds, and the Europe minister Hamish Falconer have Tory-facing seats, while Labour MPs across Hertfordshire, Kent and parts of London, including Finchley and Harrow, could also be at risk.
One tactic under discussion is talking up the prospect of a Tory-Reform pact, with MPs suggesting voters would only return in earnest to the Tories if there was a genuine chance they could win a majority, but that they could stay with Labour if they were worried about Farage getting close to power. Another is to focus on the Tory brand – including the shadow cabinet – more generally. While Badenoch’s personal ratings are relatively strong, the Conservatives overall lag way behind.
A third of people who told More in Common they believed Badenoch was doing a good job, still said they would not vote for her party. Labour officials insisted that, as the Conservatives were the official opposition, they still had them in their sights day to day. But they acknowledged they needed to step up their wider strategy.
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