South Carolina has long been one of the most solidly conservative states in the country, backing President Donald Trump by nearly 18 points in the 2024 presidential election. But as Trump’s nationwide approval rating slips, Democrats are hoping to expand the Senate map in the November 3 election. More traditionally Republican states like South Carolina, Kansas and Mississippi are drawing attention from Democrats in addition to double-digit Trump 2024 states that were already Senate battlegrounds like Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas.
Graham was appointed to the Senate seat following the death of her brother, Senator Lindsey Graham, and she won the party's nomination in the Senate race with the endorsement of Trump. Within the margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points, her support stood at 46 percent, while 45 percent said they planned to vote for Andrews, a doctor and former congressional candidate, in the new InsiderAdvantage poll of 1,200 likely voters. Other candidates received 5 percent support, while 4 percent were undecided, according to the poll, which was conducted from September 28 to 29, 2026.
It’s the latest poll to show a close race in South Carolina. But South Carolina polls have disappointed Democrats in the past, including in 2020, when data showed a close race between Senator Lindsey Graham and Democrat Jaime Harrison, only for Graham to win reelection by 10 points. Newsweek reached out to the Andrews and Graham campaigns for comment via email.
Other polling has given Graham only a slight lead in South Carolina. A recent poll from Trafalgar Group, a Republican pollster, also showed her with a single-point lead, 43 percent to 42 percent, which falls within its margin of error of 2.9 points. It surveyed 1,087 likely voters from September 23 to 25.
An earlier poll from InsiderAdvantage, conducted among 1,200 likely voters from September 8 to 9, showed Graham up only 2 points, 45 percent to 43 percent, which was also within the margin of error of 2.83 points. These polls mark a leftward shift from 2024, when Trump received 58 percent of the vote in South Carolina against former Vice President Kamala Harris’ 40 percent, an easy victory for the Republican president. But Democrats see national polls moving in their direction.
A recent survey from YouGov and The Economist found that Democrats have a 15-point advantage on the generic ballot, 53 percent to 38 percent, among likely voters. It surveyed 1,003 likely voters from September 25 to 28. Trump’s approval rating has slipped nationwide amid ongoing frustration with the economy and the cost of living.
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