Arch Manning's career is at a crossroads, featuring four potential directions, three of which were unfathomable when he enrolled at Texas as the highest-rated prospect in the Class of 2023. However, Option A remains a distinct possibility for the scion of football's foremost quarterbacking family. Even amid his poor performance for a disappointing Texas team, Manning is still widely regarded as a potential first-round pick in the 2027 NFL Draft.
He landed at No. 21 on Mike Renner's 2027 NFL Draft Big Board last week. While that placement came before another lackluster performance in a Week 7 loss to Florida, it's no outlier. Other reputable draft analysts have pegged Manning in a similar range this month, even as he's appeared to regress under Longhorns coach Steve Sarkisian.
Perhaps it's as simple as that: his regression is attributed to the coach he plays for and the scheme he plays in. While there's no way to fully absolve Manning of blame for the abundance of issues that have clouded his potential, NFL scouts pulling up Manning's increasingly sketchy film still see a big frame, big arm, quality athleticism and a special last name. With some better development, they can imagine better outcomes.
Arch Manning throws this one into double coverage and was ALMOST picked off. pic.twitter.com/bzDZ0YqveK If Manning gets back on the rails down the stretch, a 5-1 finish for Texas may be enough to get the Longhorns into the College Football Playoff at 9-3 after they plated their resume in gold with early-season wins over Ohio State and at Tennessee. Perhaps backup KJ Lacey seeing an uptick in first-team reps will bring out the best in Manning as he feels real job pressure for the first time since inheriting the starting gig from Quinn Ewers after the 2024 season. If so, what was once viewed as a foregone conclusion -- Manning hearing his name called on Day 1 of the NFL Draft after a four-year college career -- could still be reality.
But what if Manning continues to struggle and his stock keeps slipping as a result? That's where the other three potential directions come into play. Simply running it back at Texas with Manning and the same offensive staff in 2027 must sound unappealing to disgruntled Longhorns fans following consecutive losses to unranked opponents.
But if Sarkisian is willing to shake up his staff and put some new voices in Manning's ear, the option could be more plausible. Thus far in his six seasons on the job, Sarkisian has remained unfailingly loyal to offensive coordinator Kyle Flood and quarterbacks coach A.J. Milwee, even after their similar collective failings to develop Ewers.
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