Arch Manning once looked likely to become the latest quarterback in his family to garner a No. 1 overall draft pick, but his stock is slipping amid a shaky season. ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. released an early big board for the 2027 draft on Friday. Manning ranks No. 24 overall as the No. 6 quarterback behind Oklahoma State's Drew Mestemaker, Miami's Darian Mensah, Ole Miss's Trinidad Chambliss, Notre Dame's CJ Carr, and Missouri's Austin Simmons.
"He's still a top-25 player because of the skill set," Kiper wrote of Manning. "I see the size, mobility and arm strength that NFL teams look for in a franchise quarterback. He can make throws rolling out, and he is dangerous as a runner." Manning has shown flashes of stardom throughout his fourth year at Texas.
Yet the former five-star recruit hasn't improved much in his second season as a starter, averaging 7.7 yards per pass attempt with seven interceptions for the 5-2 Longhorns. Kiper remains unsure whether he can trust Manning to piece his talent together and deliver reliable results. "Manning is too inconsistent, especially when it comes to accuracy and decision-making," Kiper said.
"He's going to be a tough evaluation. Watch just about any game he plays, and you'll ride the roller coaster of getting excited about his NFL ceiling and then wondering whether he's ever going to truly put it all together. Manning doesn't see the field as well as other quarterbacks on this list, and he occasionally throws off balance.
And while the accuracy is better this season than it was in 2025, it still has to improve. I'm very curious to see how the rest of this season plays out." Manning isn't the only top quarterback tumbling down draft boards this season. Kiper placed Oregon's Dante Moore, another No. 1 pick candidate entering the 2026 campaign, at No .25 overall.
Kiper will get another chance to watch Manning when Texas hosts Mississippi State this Saturday night.
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