This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies. Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: From the air, Wainwright, Alaska, looks like a perfectly stable band of homes and roads between the Chukchi Sea and a vast, flat tundra. But just below the surface, the frozen ground on which this town was built contains large bodies of ice.
Along the eroding coastal bluffs, that hidden ice is becoming exposed and melting away. This is more than a landscape change. When ice within frozen ground, known as permafrost, melts, roads can sink, buildings can tilt, pipelines can crack and leak, and shorelines can retreat, leaving homes precariously close to the ocean's edge.
A study in 2025 estimated that permafrost thaw could cost Alaska $37 billion to $51 billion in damage to buildings and roads alone. As a civil engineer, I have spent the past decade studying how permafrost and infrastructure respond as Arctic temperatures rise two to three times faster than the global average. A regional permafrost map alone cannot tell a builder how a particular foundation or road will survive as temperatures rise.
Engineers need methods that can help them see beneath the surface and find the weaknesses. Using drones and digital twin technology, my colleagues and I have been developing those techniques. Permafrost is ground that stays at or below 32 degrees Fahrenheit (0 degrees Celsius) for at least two consecutive years.
Where permafrost is rich in ground ice, thawing can fundamentally change its ability to support infrastructure. Frozen soil that has held buildings, roads and pipelines for decades can start to sink as temperatures rise and the ice that bonds soil particles weakens. When ground ice melts and water drains away, the surface can subside.
The weight of homes, roads and other infrastructure can cause the ground to sink even more. This process is highly uneven. Locations a city block apart can contain very different amounts of ice and unfrozen water.
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