Stop us if you've heard this before: The Chiefs and the 49ers are among the best teams in the NFL. Kansas City and San Francisco are a combined 11-0 and are two of the three remaining undefeated teams, joined by the 5-0 Vikings. Since 2019 — the season they first met in the Super Bowl — the Chiefs have the most wins (including playoffs) in the NFL, and the 49ers are third, behind the Chiefs and the Bills.
Are we looking at a Chiefs-49ers Super Bowl for the third time in eight seasons? SportsLine projections currently have it as the most likely matchup for the Lombardi Trophy. These are the five most likely through six weeks: As you can see, none are particularly likely.
That's because one, it's only Week 7, and two, any specific matchup is extremely unlikely until deep into the playoffs. SportsLine still gives eight AFC teams and seven NFC teams at least a 5% chance to make the Super Bowl. While the Chiefs and the 49ers are the favorites to emerge from their conferences, it's an extremely tight race.
Teams with 5% or better chance to make Super Bowl, via SportsLine So what's making these teams so good, and who — or what — could stop them? The 49ers and Chiefs share one major strength: their offenses. They rank third and sixth, respectively, in points per drive.
It starts with the rushing game. The 49ers lead the NFL in rushing success rate (a down-to-down measure), and the Chiefs lead the NFL in rushing expected points added (which takes into account situation and rewards big plays more). Kenneth Walker III has been a revelation for the Chiefs.
They had the least explosive running back rush rate from 2024-25. This year, they are second in explosive rushing rate, and Walker leads the NFL with 665 rushing yards (despite having already had his bye week) and 6.3 yards per rush. His seven rushes of 20+ yards are tied for the most in the NFL.
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