An investigation has revealed that Russian satellites are assisting the Iran-aligned Houthis to strike Saudi Arabia’s military and energy infrastructure, further upending global energy markets amid the US war on Iran. Hostilities between the internationally recognised Yemeni government, which is backed by Saudi Arabia, and the Houthis have been ongoing since July and escalated in September when the rebel group seized full control of Yemen’s Red Sea coast. Last month, the Houthis also carried out a precision strike on pumping stations on Saudi Arabia’s most important oil pipeline, the East-West pipeline.
An investigation by Geneva-based private firm AURORAH GeoSignal Intelligence revealed that Russian satellites had been surveying the region days in advance to gather intelligence about the pipeline. With fighting for control of Yemen between the Houthis and the Saudi-backed Yemeni government continuing, how significant is Russia’s support to the Houthis? Why can’t Saudi Arabia, the most powerful of the Gulf states that is backed by the US, hold back a group of rebel fighters?
As revealed by The news agency this week, between July 1 and October 19, AURORAH Geosignal Intelligence examined 40 missile and drone attacks against Saudi Arabia by Yemen’s Houthis and, in every case, found a pattern of Russian government and military satellites observing the targeted areas both before and after the attacks. Nawaf Obaid, founder of the geosignal intelligence firm, told Al Jazeera that by reconstructing Russia’s military reconnaissance architecture, the group had identified individual satellites, calculated their orbital trajectories and then established observation opportunities and correlated their activity with military developments across Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE and Yemen. He said the satellites they identified include Russia’s Bars-M military mapping satellites, Persona optical reconnaissance satellites, Lotos-S1 electronic intelligence satellites, Pion-NKS maritime reconnaissance systems and Kondor-FKA radar-imaging satellites.
They also examined the EKS/Tundra infrared early-warning constellation. Obaid also confirmed to Al Jazeera that based on the findings, “Russian military geospatial and signals intelligence has supported the Iranian-led intelligence architecture assisting Houthi operations in Yemen.” He said the strongest operational example of this has been the Houthi offensive along Yemen’s western coast towards Bab al-Mandeb, where Russian-derived intelligence, Iranian command integration and local human intelligence all contributed to “the rapid deterioration of opposing Yemeni forces’ battlefield coordination”. Russian military reconnaissance provides capabilities far beyond ordinary commercial satellite imagery, particularly when optical, radar and electronic intelligence are integrated,” he said.
That was when three pumping stations – PS8 at Afif, PS9 at Al-Dhekra and PS11 at Al-Mesba’ah – were struck within the pipeline’s “critical high-elevation western section”. Brussels-based military analyst Elijah Magnier said AURORA’s findings don’t necessarily show the whole picture. But Obaid highlighted that distinguishing a Russian-supported intelligence architecture from proof that a particular Russian satellite supplied the targeting data for an individual Houthi strike is essential.
Three officials, including one from Saudi Arabia and another in the top ranks of the Houthis, as well as a private intelligence analyst, confirmed to The that the Houthis and other Iranian allies have benefitted from Russian intelligence, as well as Chinese capabilities. Last week, the Saudi Foreign Ministry’s deputy minister for public diplomacy, Rayed Krimly, told reporters that the Houthis receive intelligence from Russia and China. Russian officials have not yet commented on AURORAH’s findings, but in recent years, technological and military ties between Russia and Iran have deepened significantly, anchored by joint strategic agreements, space cooperation, and the exchange of defence technology.
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