This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies. Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: Last spring, UC Berkeley researcher Anna Powell sat in on a Zoom call as a number of Bay Area child care center leaders discussed, with sympathy and frustration, the difficult position their businesses were in. In a few months, the start of the school year would also mark the first year of public transitional kindergarten (or TK) for all California 4-year-olds, completing its expansion across the state.
An optional new grade level based at elementary schools, TK is free for families of any income level. Parents can still elect to keep their children with family or in private child care centers at schools, churches or homes, depending on what best fits their needs. But while subsidies for these non-TK options exist, not everyone can access them easily.
The early educators assembled on Zoom commiserated about the kinds of apologetic emails that had become all too familiar: The family just loved their program, but they were sorry to say that their little one would soon be switching to TK. California's child care costs are among the highest in the nation; care for a 4-year-old averages $13,000 a year in the state. In a market this expensive, Powell said the addition of TK as a broadly available, publicly funded option is a boon to parents.
"Unfortunately," she added, "this is an ecosystem where everything is connected. And by dramatically changing care for one group of children, it's destabilizing the rest of this sector." A child care provider she interviewed put it more bluntly: "TK has killed my business." In an Aug. 12 report, Powell and other researchers from the Center for the Study of Child Care Employment at Berkeley spell out how the popular universal TK program has affected early child care workers—drawing their conclusions from enrollment data and focus groups with the early educators themselves. The dilemma facing these educators, Powell said, boils down to, "What do you do when all of a sudden you have to redevelop your entire business model in the span of just a few years?" So far, they aren't getting enough support, the researchers found.
Like New York City and the Canadian province of Quebec, both of which have instituted universal TK, Powell said California is facing "predictable growing pains" as it rolls the program out. Her team's analysis found that in 2025, TK enrollment accounted for 31% of the market share of care for 4-year-olds in the state. At the same time, non-TK early child care centers saw the proportion of 4-year-olds enrolled in their programs—relative to younger children—drop.
For example, only 57% of licensed family child care providers, meaning educators who base their child care businesses in homes, reported caring for any 4-year-olds. Fewer 4-year-old pupils was a consequence everyone expected. But while researchers had anticipated seeing increased enrollment of 3-year-olds in those freed-up slots, they instead saw that number plateau, while enrollment of even younger toddlers rose slightly.
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