Leaders from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan were meeting at a palace overlooking the Grand Mosque in Islam's holy city of Mecca. Sitting side by side that day, on Aug. 7, at hardwood desks set against a backdrop of silk drapery, the three leaders put pen to paper and signed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement. Described by some as the birth of a "Sunni Security Triad," the agreement combines Saudi Arabia's oil wealth, the growing defense might of Turkey, which already fields NATO's second largest military, and Pakistan's nuclear capabilities.
It includes NATO's Article 5-style language, that any armed attack on one of the three Sunni Muslim states is regarded as an attack on all of them, and a commitment between them to exchange intelligence and defense technology. But perhaps more important than the contents of the deal, the agreement symbolizes a cornerstone of an emerging regional security architecture and a hedge against post-U.S. geopolitical uncertainty. According to Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, Ankara was a main driver of the talks that went on for three years.
And analysts say it was pushed by Ankara's vision that aims to slowly establish Turkey as a central player in the Middle East, a region rocked by years of war that has shaken longstanding power dynamics. Turkey's broadening defense-industrial base leaves the country less dependent on the West militarily (though it still craves F-35 jets from Washington). It has also widened its military reach: it has bases in Somalia, Qatar, Libya and is playing an increasingly central role in shaping Syria as it emerges from a decade of civil war.
Turkey has also deftly used cultural soft power — its TV shows are watched across the region — and humanitarian causes — building schools across the region — to gain influence. And Turkey has cast itself as a capable mediator to help bring an end to global conflicts, from Ukraine to Iran. Turkey's bid for greater regional influence comes at a time when the region has been hit by profound shocks that started with the Hamas-led Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel, and continues with the stalemated, seven-month-old U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.
Those have seen Iran defiant but diminished, with its network of proxies across Syria and Lebanon in ruins. There's growing talk in Washington of the U.S. reducing its Middle East security footprint in the aftermath of the war, amid persistent questions from the region about the value of the U.S.'s security umbrella. Turkey's ambitions to fill any void though face some real obstacles.
Years of economic mismanagement have led to persistent high inflation, a weak currency and rising energy import costs, straining state resources. Its biggest challenge though might come in the form of an increasingly assertive and aggressive Israel. "Turkey's regional ambitions clearly exceed its current economic means.
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