When Paul McKinney, a farmer in northeast Arkansas, thinks of his son’s childhood, he remembers a small boy playing in vast fields. To a child, a flooded rice field is “like a giant, 40-acre swimming pool”, he said. Rice has been a staple on McKinney’s farm for four generations.
Next year, however, the family plans to plant much less. Instead, they will focus on soya, a crop that is cheaper to produce. Like farmers across the United States, McKinney is making tough decisions this year in response to higher fuel and fertiliser costs, which have skyrocketed since the start of the war on Iran.
This week, farmers also face tough choices at the polls. Democrats are expected to make gains in the midterm elections, as voters react to high prices economy-wide by switching parties or staying home. Observers are watching farm country closely.
Texas and Kansas could send Democrats to the Senate for the first time in decades. In the House of Representatives, two majority-rural districts, Wisconsin’s Third and North Carolina First, could become tipping points for Democratic control. Still, many of the country’s most rural areas, like Arkansas, are also its most safely Republican.
That leaves an uphill battle for Democrat Hallie Shoffner, who quit farming last year to challenge Republican Senator Tom Cotton in a campaign squarely focused on rising costs. Even before the US-Israel war on Iran, high input costs were straining farmers, said Ryan Loy, an extension economist for the University of Arkansas’ Division of Agriculture. Loy pointed to a trade war with China that began in 2018, the ongoing war in Ukraine and disruptions related to the 2025 tariffs as factors driving up input costs and disrupting markets.
A drought across the US heartland, made worse by climate change, has added to the strain. Farmers across the country are working to adapt. In Arkansas, many farmers skipped rice in favour of soya.
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