This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies. Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: Within the next five years, global warming is set to breach the 1.5°C threshold at the heart of the 2015 Paris Agreement. This will have dire consequences, from rapidly melting ice sheets to ghostly white coral reefs.
To date, the world has failed to tackle climate change head-on. We must now focus on limiting the magnitude and duration of "overshoot"—how much global temperatures exceed the 1.5°C limit. Every fraction of a degree our planet warms, and every year spent there, will inflict irreversible ecological damage.
A new report, developed by my research team at Climate Analytics and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, asks a simple question: What can Australia do to limit this overshoot? Our latest research suggests the world can still limit peak warming to about 1.7°C, reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions in the 2060s and bring warming back below 1.5°C by 2100. But only if governments take urgent and ambitious action.
Fossil fuels—including oil, coal and gas—account for more than 75% of global greenhouse gas emissions. To curb climate change, we must rapidly transition away from their use. Australia committed to this goal at COP28 in 2023, at COP30 by signing the Belém Declaration and at the Santa Marta conference in April 2026.
In Australia, we've had too many reminders of what's at stake: the horrific Black Summer fires of 2019–20; repeated record floods, including across Queensland and northern New South Wales following Cyclone Debbie in 2017; and the mass bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef, Ningaloo and Scott reefs. Now, a potentially record-shattering El Niño is forming. Research suggests it could temporarily push global warming toward 1.7°C or even 1.8°C in 2027, likely bringing extreme heat and drought conditions to Australia.
Our new report shows Australia can realistically meet our climate targets. But that demands we urgently adopt an ambitious emissions pathway built on the Paris Agreement. Discover the latest in science, tech, and space with over 100,000 subscribers who rely on Phys.org for daily insights. d research that matter—daily or weekly.
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