Azerbaijan’s economic performance in the first nine months of 2026 offers an important perspective on the country’s development priorities for the remainder of the decade. Rising exports, a substantial trade surplus and ambitious targets for non-oil economic growth provide a foundation for examining how Azerbaijan can strengthen its productive capacity and broaden its presence in international markets. The country recorded $37.21 billion in foreign trade turnover between January and September 2026, according to calculations based on the State Customs Committee.
Exports reached $23.865 billion, while imports totalled $13.346 billion, generating a positive trade balance of $10.519 billion. The surplus increased approximately 5.7-fold year on year, reflecting a 28.3% rise in exports and a 20.4% decline in imports. These figures provide a strong starting point for assessing Azerbaijan’s external economic position.
A substantial trade surplus creates additional economic flexibility, supports the accumulation of external resources and strengthens the country’s capacity to finance investment priorities. The next strategic task is to translate these advantages into higher domestic production, stronger private enterprises and a broader range of competitive exports. Azerbaijan’s medium-term economic projections set an ambitious benchmark.
According to the Ministry of Finance figures, GDP is projected to reach 169.1 billion manat, equivalent to approximately $99.5 billion, by 2030. The non-oil and gas sector is expected to account for 82% of GDP, with average annual real GDP growth projected at 3.3% and average annual growth in the non-oil and gas economy forecast at 4.4%. The projected size of non-oil and gas GDP stands at 138.6 billion manat, or approximately $81.5 billion.
Achieving this objective would represent a substantial expansion of the economic base, with manufacturing, agriculture, transport, digital services and other productive activities playing increasingly important roles. The significance of this target extends beyond the composition of GDP. A larger non-oil economy can create additional employment opportunities, strengthen domestic supply chains, expand the tax base and improve the resilience of economic activity across different market conditions.
The first nine months of 2026 brought a particularly strong increase in Azerbaijan’s overall exports. The country exported goods worth $23.865 billion, while non-oil exports, excluding the specified petroleum product categories, reached $6.652 billion, accounting for 27.87% of total exports. This distinction is important.
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