Azerbaijan enters the final months of 2026 with an external trade position that supports confidence in the manat. In January–September, the country exported goods worth $23.865 billion and imported $13.346 billion, producing a positive trade balance of $10.519 billion. Total foreign trade turnover reached $37.211 billion, up 5.2% year on year.
Exports grew 28.3%, while imports declined 20.4%. These figures form a persuasive economic case for expecting the manat to remain around its current rate of 1.70 per US dollar through year-end, provided current policy conditions continue. At $10.5 billion, the nine-month balance was 5.7 times the level recorded a year earlier, according to customs data reported in October.
The result reflects stronger export receipts and lower import spending, creating a cushion in the country’s external accounts. When exporters receive foreign currency and domestic demand for imports absorbs a smaller share of it, the supply-demand balance in the foreign-exchange market becomes more favourable to the national currency. The Central Bank of Azerbaijan has also been accumulating reserves.
Its official foreign exchange reserves rose from approximately $11.515 billion at the end of 2025 to $15.363 billion on September 30, 2026. That represents an increase of about $3.849 billion, or 33.4%, in nine months. The Central Bank reported that it purchased $1.5 billion in foreign currency during August alone, amid a current-account surplus and continued de-dollarization in the financial sector.
Governor Taleh Kazimov has said that purchases could continue, with around $1 billion in additional buying possible by the end of the year, depending on market conditions and inflation risks. These developments matter because the manat operates under a de facto fixed exchange-rate arrangement, with the official rate maintained at 1.7000 per dollar. In such a framework, strong foreign currency inflows can help the Central Bank meet market demand and build a reserve buffer.
Currency purchases also allow the regulator to absorb part of the dollar supply entering the market, while converting those purchases into manat liquidity that requires careful monetary management. A wider national reserve picture adds another layer of reassurance. By September 30, Azerbaijan’s strategic foreign exchange reserves, including the Central Bank’s holdings and the State Oil Fund’s assets, had reached approximately $89.38 billion, up 9.7% year on year.
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