At the Awaza Complex on the Caspian coast of Turkmenistan, the dance steps were known: arrival of presidents, shaking hands, family picture. However, behind all the rituals of the eighth Consultative Meeting of the Heads of State of Azerbaijan and Central Asia, there is a more serious reconfiguration process going on. It takes place not through changes in borders but also through changes in the route through which they are crossed.
President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan has come to Turkmenbashi today to participate in the talks with the presidents of the five Central Asian republics. His appearance is noteworthy for the following reason: for the first time ever, one of the countries from the South Caucasus became a participant in the format which was initially created specifically for Central Asia. Practical considerations justified the decision to include Azerbaijan.
As the next year's host country, Azerbaijan aims to become a must-have western connection for the landlocked economies of Central Asia through everything from energy shipments to investments and fibre-optic cable installations. Azerbaijan is becoming more and more defined as a middle power; that is, one which is not large enough to dominate its neighbours in the region, but whose economic and geographical importance is such that it will be able to influence decisions of far more powerful players. It has resources to shape the domestic policies of its neighbours, and from time to time we have witnessed it speaking as an equal to Moscow and Türkiye - which are considered the regional powers.
Yet the ability to offer alternative trade, energy and transport routes gives Baku bargaining power that a conventional measure of national size would miss. According to the president, Azerbaijan’s trade turnover with Central Asian states rose by more than 50% last year, while more than 400 companies backed by Central Asian capital are operating in Azerbaijan. Joint investment funds established with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan offer another instrument of cooperation.
But the President signalled that investment must become more than an item in summit communiqués. The Middle Corridor, linking Asia and Europe via Central Asia, the Caspian, Azerbaijan, Georgia and onward routes, is the clearest expression of the region’s shifting priorities. This has been stated in several articles for a decent amount of time.
Russia’s war in Ukraine and wider supply-chain disruptions have increased the appeal of alternatives to traditional northern routes. European governments and businesses have an obvious interest in access to Central Asian markets and resources that does not depend on a single transit system. In the case of the European Union, Azerbaijan has been more than just a country that supplies its energy requirements to it.
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