When the 2026 Ballon d’Or ceremony gets under way at the London Palladium this Monday, much of England will hope it serves as a good omen. After all, the English haven’t seen one of their own lift the golden ball – football’s most prestigious individual award – in 25 years. Michael Owen was the embodiment of English pride when he won the accolade in 2001.
Now, it is Harry Kane who could bring his nation an honour every footballer dreams of. So, what are Kane’s odds of winning the Ballon d’Or? Al Jazeera takes a look: Remember the time when Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo scored 50-plus goals for fun?
When a football forward’s goal tally looked more like a batsman’s cricket score? Kane’s 2025-26 goal-scoring exploit is the closest we have experienced to that in recent years. The England captain’s 73-goal performance last season was the finest display the world has seen since Argentinian legend Messi’s 82-goal tally in 2011-12.
The Bayern Munich forward’s statistics look even more impressive given he is seemingly peaking at 33, an age when most forwards are far beyond their prime. Kane is bidding to join the ranks of Messi, Luka Modric and Karim Benzema, some of the recipients of the last 10 editions who won the Ballon d’Or in their 30s. Standing in his way, however, are two very talented juniors – Spain’s superstar-in-the-making, Lamine Yamal, who won the 2026 FIFA World Cup shortly after his 19th birthday, and France’s 2018 world champion, Kylian Mbappe, who is 27.
When Kane made his Premier League debut for Tottenham Hotspur in 2014, Yamal was still in primary school, and Mbappe was in high school. Since Kane moved from London to Munich, the forward has taken German club football by storm, and 2025-26 was no different. He finished the campaign with three trophies: the Bundesliga title, DFB-Pokal (the German Cup) and Franz Beckenbauer Supercup (the German Supercup).
But his failure to make an impact in the Champions League semifinal cost Bayern Europe’s most coveted club trophy, and the same was the case at the recent World Cup, where he finished third with England. While World Cup success is not a strict requirement to win the Ballon d’Or, having a world title on your CV definitely helps. Furthermore, being pitted against 2026 World Cup winners Yamal and Rodri – also the 2024 Ballon d’Or recipient – could hurt Kane’s odds.
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