The race for the 2026 Ballon d’Or is heating up with less than 24 hours to go before the winner is announced at a glitzy ceremony in London. A three-way contest between Lamine Yamal, Kylian Mbappe and Harry Kane leads the debate in the run-up to football’s most prestigious individual honour. Yamal, Spain’s 19-year-old prodigy, and France’s 2018 World Cup winner Mbappe have both publicly endorsed themselves for the honour, while the unstoppable Kane of England has been relatively shy in campaigning for himself.
Predictions are pouring in thick and fast as we inch closer to the award ceremony at the London Palladium. According to data released by Avisia, a French data analysis and artificial intelligence firm, Yamal is the favourite to win the 2026 Ballon d’Or. The Barcelona winger is tipped to have a 23 percent probability of lifting the trophy, awarded to the best footballer of the 2025-26 season.
The data and AI consulting firm chose Kane as a close second, with a 21 per cent probability, while Mbappe ranked third at 19 percent, tied with Rodri, the 2024 Ballon d’Or winner. The top five list is rounded out by Lionel Messi given an 18 percent chance to win for a record-extending ninth time. Avisia claims it correctly identified the top five for the 2025 Ballon d’Or, won by Ousmane Dembele.
Even though Yamal is Avisia’s top pick, it is Kane who the bookmakers see as the outright favourite, with about 70 percent probability. Atletico Madrid manager Diego Simeone thinks his compatriot Messi, who recently retired from international duty, deserves to lift the golden ball. Former Italy international Marco Materazzi echoed those thoughts.
Jude Bellingham, also shortlisted for the Ballon d’Or, backed England captain Kane and his attacking partner at the 2026 World Cup. When asked if Kane could win, he added, “It’s definitely possible”. Fellow England international Anthony Gordon sided with his Barcelona teammate Yamal.
He’s on a whole other level,” said Gordon. Mbappe, on the other hand, has the backing of his Real Madrid teammate Aurelien Tchouameni, who said the Frenchman had “an incredible season”. Looking purely at individual statistics, Mbappe leads the race as La Liga’s top scorer with 25 goals and the Champions League’s leading marksman with 15.
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