European intelligence officials have raised the possibility of an imminent Russian test of Nato, with one saying a potential attack could come in a matter of “months not years”. The warnings came after Poland’s prime minister, Donald Tusk, told parliament that intelligence assessments suggest Russia may launch an attack with drones or missiles on Nato territory in the coming months, as part of efforts to prove that “article 5 is more theoretical than practical”. French president Emmanuel Macron called Tusk’s warnings “sound and well-documented”, and on Friday summoned party leaders and 2027 presidential candidates for an emergency meeting in Paris, where they discussed – among other topics – intelligence of a growing threat from Russia.
The escalation fears come as the UN general assembly convenes in New York later this week, and amid intensifying airstrikes on both sides of Russia’s war on Ukraine. Kyiv hit Moscow and other Russian regions with hundreds of drones and missiles in the early hours of Sunday, in one of its biggest air attacks of the war. In separate interviews with the Guardian over the past week, in different locations, three European intelligence leaders discussed their views of the potential threat from Moscow.
Michal Koudelka, head of the Czech Republic’s BIS security service, said that as well as increased drone activity, a small-scale invasion of Nato territory that borders Russia could be part of the Kremlin’s plans. It could involve a limited incursion, false flag provocations, a massive influence campaign,” he said, in a rare interview at the agency’s headquarters in Prague. He said this scenario could play out in a matter of “months, not years,” but added that “a lot of people are doing everything they can to make sure this doesn’t happen”.
Officials in the three Baltic nations, which border Russian territory, have been more cautious about the prospect of an invasion or other serious escalation, citing Moscow’s currently stretched resources in Ukraine and warning that playing up the prospect of a massive attack might be to play into the Kremlin’s hands. He conceded that there are signs that Moscow is making preparations for more decisive action in Europe, but said it was not clear whether the plans are simply part of a destabilisation strategy. Baltic politicians, who for many years criticised western Europe for being soft on Russia, now find themselves in the strange position of telling some western leaders to calm down in their public messaging, fearing that talk of an imminent invasion could prove damaging to their societies and economies.
On Saturday, the secretary general of Estonia’s foreign ministry, Jonatan Vseviov, decried “panic on social media” in recent days about a possible attack. Until then, keep calm, carry on and support Ukraine,” he wrote on X. Mežviets said that, overall, it was good thing that western Europe had woken up to the threat from Russia.
In 2022, the approach of our partners changed, they said it turns out the Balts and the Poles had been right,” he said. Neither Mežviets nor Koudelka would discuss what specific intelligence may have been obtained about Russia’s supposed planning for the coming months, nor would they comment on whether a surprise trip by CIA director John Ratcliffe to Moscow last month – during which he stopped off in Riga – was partly to warn the Kremlin about the dangers of launching an attack on Nato. After that visit, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov dismissed rumours of a Russian attack on Nato: “It has nothing to do with reality and nothing to do with the intentions of the Russian Federation,” he said.
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