Donald Trump has rejected Iran’s latest proposal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz as experts say the United States president believes Washington has more to gain by waiting than by accepting Tehran’s terms at this moment. But that deal would not be acceptable.” On Sunday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran had seen the initial reaction from Trump to its proposal but had yet to receive a response through mediators. In the latest diplomatic efforts, Qatar has played a role in mediating talks between Iran and the US on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly meeting in New York.
Iran’s seven-day proposal included Washington lifting its naval blockade of Iranian ports, waiving sanctions on Iranian oil sales, releasing an estimated $12bn in frozen Iranian assets and observing a wider regional ceasefire, including in Lebanon and Yemen. Iran would then reopen the Strait of Hormuz and begin negotiations with Washington on a final agreement. The latest proposals are similar to the June memorandum of understanding (MoU) the two countries signed.
But the MoU collapsed last month due to differences on the terms of the deal, which resulted in an escalation in attacks, particularly in and around the Strait of Hormuz, which essentially remains under Iranian blockade. According to experts, Trump’s rejection suggested that while both sides continue to publicly leave the door open for diplomacy, they remain far apart over who should make the first concessions. He believes the combination of the naval blockade and economic isolation is finally squeezing Iran hard enough that Tehran’s latest proposal is evidence of weakness rather than an offer Washington needs to seize,” Andreas Krieg, associate professor at King’s College London, told Al Jazeera.
His public argument that Iran is “losing badly” is important because it suggests he thinks time is improving the US bargaining position, Krieg said. A key part of Trump’s calculation appears to be a belief that the economic pressure on Iran has not yet run its course. The Trump administration has escalated economic pressure on Tehran, tightening its naval blockade while imposing sanctions targeting Iranian oil revenues and threatening secondary sanctions against countries doing business with Tehran.
Last week, the US imposed aviation sanctions on Iran, disrupting flights. This came weeks after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced an economic pressure campaign against Iran, promising to target Tehran’s financial interests across the world. Richard Weitz, a senior nonresident associate fellow at the NATO Defence College, told Al Jazeera that the White House may believe it can “wait a bit and get better terms”.
There is also concern in Washington about Iran’s proposed sequencing, he said. Therefore, Weitz said Washington may be calculating that “economic pressure over time will induce the Iranian government to make more concessions”. It is, therefore, possible that “we could see the same kind of trade-off in the coming months”.
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