The Big Ten's College Football Playoff math got a lot messier over the weekend. Penn State's loss to Wisconsin in Week 4 knocked another contender off course, while Oregon's win over USC gave the Ducks a statement victory at the previously unbeaten Trojans' expense. That's the problem for a league hoping to send four or more teams to the playoff this season: there's a lot of football left to play with the number of elites dwindling.
The Big Ten has several teams capable of making a run, but the margin for error is shrinking, and October should provide immediate clarity on what once looked like a path to four bids that is quickly diminishing. Often reserved to describe the SEC's weekly grind every season, the Big Ten is experiencing early-season cannibalization, given the league's competitive depth. There are only four remaining unbeatens in the conference after four games made up primarily of a group few were expecting -- Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska and UCLA.
In CBS Sports' latest CFP projection, three Big Ten teams are in the 12-team bracket with a few others just outside the mix. Iowa is in the projected CFP bracket with one of the most favorable remaining schedules once the Hawkeyes' Week 5 clash with Ohio State concludes. We're expecting the Big 12 and ACC to be one-bid leagues at this point unless an unbeaten team from one of those conferences reaches the league championship game and loses.
If all goes according to plan for the Big Ten, the conference will be vying -- along with the SEC -- for as many of the six at-large spots a few months from now. How did we come up with the half-dozen number? Four auto-bids to Power Four champions, one Group of Six rep and Notre Dame.
Based on the Week 5 AP poll, the Hawkeyes' only remaining matchup with a ranked opponent comes this weekend against Ohio State. If Iowa beats the Buckeyes, not only is Kirk Ferentz's team the new Big Ten frontrunner, but it's also a potential top-4 seed as the conference championship starts to come into focus. A loss to Ohio State still keeps Iowa in line to reach the CFP if the Hawkeyes win out and finish 11-1, but they're not going to have the resume of other multi-loss hopefuls playing considerably tougher schedules.
Oregon sits in a prime position with one loss after last week's win at USC, with a clear path to an at-large berth, which was a distant memory a few weeks ago following the loss at Oklahoma State. The Ducks host unbeaten UCLA and Nebraska over their next two games, and that's going to provide clear separation at the top of the conference amongst those teams. Penn State and Wisconsin are the only Big Ten teams that do not play Ohio State, Indiana or Oregon this season, so the Badgers' 17-point comeback in Happy Valley was quite momentous.
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