Final polling averages underestimated Democratic support in several of the most consequential races of the 2026 midterm elections, including contests for the U.S. Senate and state governorships. To identify the biggest misses, Newsweek compared RealClearPolling’s final head-to-head averages with results reported by the as of 2 p.m.
The clearest wrong-leader misses came in the Texas governor’s race, where RealClearPolling’s average favored Republican Greg Abbott before Democrat Gina Hinojosa won, and South Carolina’s Senate election, where Republican Darline Graham Nordone led the average before Democrat Annie Andrews prevailed. Other averages identified the Democratic winner but substantially understated the final margin, including in Georgia’s governor’s race. Costas Panagopoulos, a distinguished professor of political science at Northeastern University, told Newsweek in a phone call before the election that a discrepancy between polling and the result can arise from more than one source.
They nevertheless show that the polling story of 2026 cannot be reduced to whether an average placed the winning candidate narrowly ahead. Polls helped determine where parties spent money, which candidates received national attention, and how forecasters assessed control of Congress before Election Day. If surveys misjudge turnout or voter preferences in the same direction across multiple states, the resulting error can alter expectations for control of an entire chamber.
Democrats ultimately won the Senate after gaining seats in Texas, Kansas, Ohio, South Carolina, Iowa, Maine and North Carolina. The party also retained competitive seats in Michigan and Georgia, securing at least 54 Senate seats while Alaska and Mississippi remained unresolved on Wednesday morning. The House also changed hands, confirming a national Democratic victory that reached states where Republicans had recently enjoyed substantial advantages.
Democrat James Talarico led Republican Ken Paxton by 2.6 points in RealClearPolling’s final head-to-head average, 49.1 percent to 46.5 percent. AP called the race for Talarico, putting him ahead by 12.1 points, 55.1 percent to 43 percent. The difference produced a 9.5-point polling error – the biggest overall miss of the races in Newsweek’s analysis.
RealClearPolling’s final head-to-head average placed Abbott 2.3 points ahead of Hinojosa, 49.7 percent to 47.4 percent. AP called the race for Hinojosa, who led by 7.1 points in the latest count, 52.8 percent to 45.7 percent. The movement from Republican plus 2.3 to Democrat plus 7.1 produced a 9.4-point polling error – the biggest wrong-leader error in Newsweek’s analysis.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
