The Tampa Bay Rays took their first step toward a baseball miracle with their 12th-inning comeback win over the Milwaukee Brewers in Tuesday's Game 4 of the World Series. That 4-3 victory means the Rays avoided the sweep and cut the Brewers' series lead to 3-1. That sets the stage for Wednesday's Game 5.
Tuesday's escape for the Rays was obviously an essential one, as it was an elimination game. The win also nudged the Rays' chances of winning the series from "all but impossible" to "merely a longshot." Across all of Major League Baseball postseason history, 42 teams have been down 3-0, and only one – the 2004 Boston Red Sox – has come back to win the series in question. That is, history suggests the Rays had a mere 2.4% chance of pulling off the miracle comeback when they were down 3-0.
Now, though, they're down 3-1. In all, 96 teams have been down 3-1 in a best-of-seven MLB postseason series, and 14 of them have clawed back to win the series. That particular data set says the Rays have a 14.6% chance of stunning the Brewers and winning this Fall Classic.
Those aren't great odds, obviously, but they're much better than the odds the Rays were facing going into Game 4. Interestingly, teams down 3-1 have a .500 record in Game 5. Speaking of which, that brings us to three questions for Game 5 – the answers to which will determine whether the Rays can cut the Brewers' advantage to 3-2 and send the series back to Milwaukee.
Rays manager Kevin Cash wisely managed Game 4 for what it was – a must-win contest. That means you worry about tomorrow when tomorrow comes and tactically do everything possible to survive the elimination game. Tomorrow, though, has now arrived, and Cash must figure out how to deploy his pitching staff for another elimination game after using seven arms on Tuesday.
The most notable Game 4 decision was using Nick Martinez, who had been slated to start Game 5, in relief. Martinez worked two scoreless innings out of the bullpen and threw 33 pitches. It'll be another all-hands-on-deck affair on Wednesday, but just who those hands will be is another matter.
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