Anders Bylund, The Motley Fool July 14, 2026 4 min read BTC-USD NVDA Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has shed half its value since peaking at $126,128 last October. Longtime holders might call this a "normal Tuesday night." Newer crypto investors are probably less amused. For context, here's what previous drawdowns looked like: Missed Nvidia in 2009?
This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia.
Continue » Gain Cycle Peak Bitcoin Price (Approximate) Drawdown 2011 $32 93% 2013-2015 $1,150 85% 2017-2018 $19,800 84% 2021-2022 $69,000 77% 2025-2026 $126,000 50% (current) Data source: YCharts.com. The October 2025 peak fits the established halving pattern. The reward issued for mining Bitcoin is halved roughly every four years to limit inflation in the blockchain accounting system.
Bitcoin tends to rally 12-18 months after each halving event, then fall back in a painful "crypto winter." The April 2024 halving preceded this peak almost exactly on schedule. If previous cycles offer any guidance, the bottoming process could extend into late 2026 or early 2027. The next halving arrives in April 2028, which historically sets the stage for another cycle.
Patience is a virtue, especially in the crypto world. . What's different this time? The current halving cycle is quite different from the first three.
Here's how: Spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024. As a result, institutional investors have access to Bitcoin, and about 6% of all Bitcoin is currently held by exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Regulatory clarity has improved to a meaningful degree.
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