Bitcoin is hovering near $63,000, with CryptoQuant data showing spot demand weakening while futures demand remains positive. The gap raises the risk that recent BTC strength is being supported by derivatives rather than durable spot buying. BlackRock's Robbie Mitchnick sees Bitcoin's recent decoupling from equities as a positive development for its long-term diversification case.
Bitcoin is struggling to hold the $63,000 region as a widening gap between spot and futures demand raises questions over the strength of its latest recovery. BTC traded below $65,000 on Aug.13, after losing momentum from last week's close near $64,874. MarketWatch noted that Bitcoin had fallen back below technical levels reclaimed during last week's attempted breakout, while Barron's put BTC near $63,833 after softer US inflation data.
The weakness comes as CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju has highlighted an uncomfortable imbalance underneath the market. CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin spot demand has weakened, while futures demand remains net positive, suggesting that derivatives traders are providing more support than investors buying BTC directly. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju cautions that Bitcoin's recent price action is predominantly futures-driven, as rising open interest contrasts with net-negative on-chain spot demand.
Emphasizing that derivative-led leverage lacks durability without authentic spot buying, he points to April's market behavior as proof that futures-led rallies typically fizzle out when underlying spot support fails to materialize. The divergence is not new. Ju previously noted that futures demand was substantially weaker than during the rebound three months earlier, while spot demand had remained mostly negative or flat even as Bitcoin recovered from its late-June lows.
During the stronger March-to-May recovery, 30-day futures demand had climbed toward 250,000 BTC. This matters because futures-led rallies can be more vulnerable to reversals. Leveraged traders can quickly close positions or face liquidations when prices move against them, while stronger spot accumulation generally represents direct demand for the underlying asset.
Bitcoin has already demonstrated that vulnerability this year. It dropped to around $58,000 in late June, more than 50% below its October 2025 record of over $126,000, before recovering to the mid-$60,000 range. A decisive break back below $63,000 would therefore put the recent recovery under renewed pressure, with the June lows becoming increasingly relevant if spot demand fails to improve.
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