Bosnia and Herzegovina’s general election did not bring about many surprises in voter trends, but some developments could change the country’s political atmosphere, analysts have told Al Jazeera. Most voters on Sunday moved further along ethnic lines, turning away from the idea of a civic society that gained momentum in the previous election when the centre-right Bosniak Party of Democratic Action (SDA) did not participate in the state government. This trend has long been a fixture in the Bosnian entity of Republika Srpska, where Milorad Dodik’s Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) once again swept aside its competition in Sunday’s elections.
Voters in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina elected a candidate of the Croatian Democratic Union of Bosnia and Herzegovina (HDZ BiH), Darijana Filipovic, to the state presidency; for eight years that seat had been held by Zeljko Komsic of the Democratic Front, a civic-oriented party. Sacir Filandra, a professor of political science at the University of Sarajevo, said the results were in line with a broader pattern – the strengthening of conservative forces in an uncertain European environment marked by “rising walls” and fear. The basis of this voter choice is insecurity, anxiety, uncertainty and, to some extent, fear, as well as global developments in Europe.” The clearer picture of what comes next will emerge only after parties negotiate coalitions and form governments.
It was not realistic to expect encouraging breakthroughs in terms of political reconciliation”, he added. During the years Komsic held the seat, the nationalist Croat leadership headed by Dragan Covic complained that Croats were being outvoted by Bosniaks, who helped Komsic to win the seat twice in a row. Under Bosnia’s electoral system, Croat and Bosniak members of the state presidency are elected in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, with every citizen, regardless of nationality, entitled to vote for any of the candidates.
Over the past eight years, many Bosniaks have cast their ballots for Komsic, who was running for the Croat seat. It could be argued that Filipovic’s victory is the most significant shift. The results mean that the only member of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s tripartite presidency representing a declared multi-ethnic political orientation will be Bosniak Denis Becirovic, of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and its partners, who won a second term in the state presidency.
However, with Filipovic and Zeljka Cvijanovic, the candidate of Dodik’s hardline Serb nationalist SNSD, on the presidency, the national interests of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s constituent peoples are likely to play a much greater role than they have over the past eight years. The elections for the state and entity parliaments, as well as cantonal assemblies, also saw the SDA perform – it was the leading party in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina in terms of the number of votes won, alongside traditionally strong performances by HDZ and SNSD. HDZ secured a convincing victory among Croat voters, while Dodik’s party won the largest number of votes in both the entity and state parliamentary elections.
Over the past eight years, HDZ BiH leader Dragan Covic has warned of the “endangerment of Croats”, fuelled by Komsic’s victories over HDZ candidates in elections for the state presidency. These votes could usher in an end to the pattern that Covic described, with the election of the Croat member of the Presidency. Filipovic defeated Komsic’s preferred candidate, Slaven Kovacevic.
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