This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies. Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: A University of Cambridge–led analysis of maps made from satellite imagery covering over three decades and seven presidents shows how the winner of Brazil's national elections since 1990 directly affected the preservation of its globally vital ecosystems. The study reveals a roller coaster of habitat loss rates across presidencies in the country's three largest biomes—the Amazon, Cerrado and Atlantic Forest—from a peak of 3.62 million hectares (8.95 million acres) of native vegetation vanishing annually under Itamar Franco in the 1990s to a low of just 1.21 million hectares (2.99 million acres) a year under Temer a decade ago.
Researchers found that the Amazon lost an average of around 994,000 hectares (2.46 million acres) annually during the first three years of Luiz Inácio "Lula" da Silva's current presidency, compared with 1.4 million hectares (3.46 million acres) a year under his predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro. This represents a reduction in the average annual area of Amazon lost under Lula's return compared with Bolsonaro's time in office, according to the study, published in Environmental Research Communications. However, in the Cerrado, the vast tropical savannas of central Brazil, the trend moved in the opposite direction.
Annual habitat losses averaged around 1.28 million hectares (3.16 million acres) between 2023 and 2025, an increase of around 50% compared with 854,000 hectares (2.11 million acres) per year under Bolsonaro, during whose presidency savanna loss accelerated. The Cerrado, a vital source of water that feeds many of Brazil's rivers, has seen major increases in commercial farming of crops such as soybeans, as U.S.–China trade tensions during Trump's first term saw China pivot to Brazilian soybeans. Weaker legal protections, along with efforts to curb deforestation in the Amazon, may have pushed agricultural expansion into the Cerrado, say researchers.
They warn that major soy traders' withdrawal from a moratorium on growing soy on recently deforested land could have devastating consequences for Brazil's natural habitats. The study also reveals how the Atlantic Forest, which stretches along Brazil's eastern coastline but has been "highly fragmented" by centuries of farming and urbanization, experienced periods of recovery rather than simply a slowdown in loss. During Lula's first two terms, the Atlantic Forest gained an average of around 18,000 hectares (44,500 acres) of native vegetation a year.
Under Rousseff, that figure rose to nearly 30,000 hectares (74,100 acres) annually. Since Rousseff left office, the Atlantic Forest has returned to net vegetation losses, although at a much smaller scale than in the Amazon or Cerrado. It is the only one of Brazil's three major biomes to have experienced periods of net vegetation gain in the last 35 years.
"Brazilian presidents have dictated the fate of the country's forests and savannas for over three decades," said study lead author Dr. Vinicius Tonetti, a Brazilian conservation biologist at the University of Cambridge's Department of Zoology. "We see that presidential terms characterized by strong environmental laws, satellite monitoring and zero-deforestation agreements are clearly linked to major reductions in habitat loss," Tonetti said.
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