This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies. Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: Stretching across much of eastern England, the Fens produce a third of the country's vegetables and support tens of thousands of jobs. Yet around 33% of the region lies below average sea level, while 87% is below the highest spring tides.
The landscape exists only because of centuries of engineering—pumps, embankments and drainage channels—that keep water moving almost constantly. Now climate change is introducing new challenges that this system was never designed to face. The Fens face several climate threats that reinforce one another.
Rising sea levels, heavier downpours, hotter summers, longer droughts and biodiversity loss are all expected to intensify over the coming decades. These are all serious challenges, and in the Fens they will play out within one tightly interconnected system. In June, we published an academic analysis of these climate risks in the Fens.
Our research examined flood risk from rivers, surface water and the sea, alongside drought, water scarcity, heat, biodiversity loss and agricultural productivity. It found that these hazards increasingly overlap as the climate warms. With around 2°C of warming, the region will experience more frequent flooding, more extreme heat, declining summer river flows and accelerated biodiversity loss.
By 2100, under a 4°C warming scenario, annual flood damages to homes and businesses in the region could rise from £16 million today to £250 million, while ecosystems could collapse and parts of the Fens would be rendered uninhabitable without major investment in new infrastructure. Importantly, sea-level rise is different from other risks because it will continue for centuries even if global temperatures are stabilized. Even a high-emissions scenario, where the sea would rise by 1 meter (3.3 feet) by 2100, would still be followed by further rise.
This is an existential risk for the low-lying Fens, meaning that more radical adaptation approaches will be needed in the long term. Decisions about how to adapt must begin well before then, as major changes to infrastructure and land management take decades to plan and implement. National climate risk assessments are essential, but they can mask the severity and complexity facing regions with distinct characteristics.
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