Florida’s governor’s race is producing sharply conflicting polling results, with some surveys showing Republican Byron Donalds holding a double-digit lead over Democrat David Jolly, while others find the candidates virtually tied. A Stetson University poll released October 13 found Donalds leading Jolly 52 percent to 41 percent, while a Change Research survey conducted around the same time found the candidates tied at 47 percent each. Pete Polls survey also found the candidates tied.
Jolly’s campaign described the results as evidence of “significant momentum” in what it called a “neck-and-neck race.” Donalds, a congressman endorsed by President Donald Trump, is facing Jolly, a former Republican congressman who later left the party to become a Democrat. The divide comes as Jolly seeks to make the case for a Democratic comeback in a state that has increasingly favored Republicans in recent elections. Newsweek reached out to Donalds' campaign for comment.
Stetson estimated a precision range of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points, but noted the online poll does not have a conventional margin of error. However, a Change Research survey conducted October 8 to 10 found the two candidates tied at 47 percent each. Five percent of respondents were undecided, while 1 percent said they would not vote.
The poll's modeled margin of error was plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. Jolly shared the Change Research results showing a virtual tie on X, saying, “Our momentum keeps building. Together, we’ll create a future that works for everyone here in Florida.” Other recent surveys have produced similarly different results.
A YouGov poll conducted September 28 to October 5 found Donalds leading 47 percent to 45 percent, with 1 percent choosing someone else and 7 percent undecided. The poll's reported margin of error was plus or minus 2.7 percentage points. The Jolly campaign described the YouGov poll as “just the latest evidence supporting significant momentum” for the Democratic nominee and his running mate, Gwen Graham.
Pete Polls survey conducted October 5 to 7 found Donalds and Jolly tied at 45 percent each, with 4 percent choosing someone else and 7 percent undecided. The survey of 836 likely voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. An NBC 6/Telemundo 51 poll conducted September 28 to October 1 found Donalds ahead 48 percent to 41 percent, with 10 percent undecided.
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