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Can diplomacy prevent an Ethiopia-Eritrea war as Tigray gets a new administration?

Can diplomacy prevent an Ethiopia-Eritrea war as Tigray gets a new administration?

dw.com 19.10.2026 17:02 1 views
Ethiopia has installed a new administration in conflict-hit Tigray after federal forces pushed back Tigrayan fighters. But tensions with Eritrea continue to raise fears of a wider regional war.

Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed on Friday announced an interim government in the country's northern Tigray region and gave it six months to prepare for regional elections and restore stability. Abiy's announcement followed a military offensive launched in September by the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and six other armed groups. They were ultimately forced to retreat and lost control of the region.

"To attain the peace that has long eluded them, to secure their right to self-administration, ​and to finally enjoy the fruits of development — which have been out of reach for many years — the people of Tigray must break free from this cycle ⁠of conflict," ​Abiy said in a statement posted on X. Shishay Amare, the new mayor of the regional capital Mekelle, said: "Our role is to create the right conditions for elections by ensuring peace and stability across Tigray," reported French news agency (AFP). "I am confident that this will be done within six months, according to our plan," Amare said, adding that their priorities included restoring peace, helping displaced residents return home, reopening markets and ensuring humanitarian assistance reached those in need.

The fighting has revived concerns about a return to the devastating 2020–2022 Tigray war. Around 1 million people remain displaced from that conflict. The African Union has estimated that the war resulted in around 600,000 deaths from combat, famine and the collapse of healthcare.

The new administration faces unresolved disputes over political authority and territory, including western Tigray, which is claimed by both Tigray and neighboring Amhara state. Ethiopia and Eritrea were once bitter enemies but signed a peace agreement in 2018. Eritrean forces later fought alongside Ethiopian federal troops during the Tigray war.

The countries' relationship has since deteriorated. Addis Ababa accuses Asmara of supporting Tigrayan forces and violating Ethiopian territory. Eritrea has denied the accusations.

Reports of Eritrean troop movements near the border have heightened concern, although the extent of any current deployment remains disputed. Tsedale Lemma, journalist and publisher of the prominent Addis Standard magazine, told DW earlier this month that the danger reflects years of unresolved tensions and failures to implement the November 2022 Pretoria Agreement, which ended the previous Tigray war. Asked whether the international community was underestimating the threat, Lemma said: "It is absolutely underestimating it." She argued that international actors had failed to ensure effective monitoring of the agreement and respond adequately as the peace process weakened.

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