Islamabad, Pakistan – Sitting with his elbows on his knees, Russia’s Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev leaned towards Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, for talks in Rawalpindi on October 14. While Kolokoltsev was in Pakistan, Sergey Naryshkin, director of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), flew into Kabul to meet the Taliban’s intelligence chief, Abdul Haq Wasiq. Officially, Russia, Pakistan and Afghanistan have issued little beyond standard statements about the meetings.
But the signs are clear: Pakistan and Afghanistan have spent the past year exchanging fire and public threats. Qatar and Turkiye brokered a ceasefire in Doha last October and China hosted talks in Urumqi in April, but attacks inside Pakistan continued. Islamabad again struck Afghan territory in June, September and this month.
Russia now appears to be stepping in as a mediator. Moscow’s special representative for Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, told Russia’s TASS news agency earlier this month that his country was ready to play peace broker between Kabul and Islamabad if both sides requested it. Pakistan’s ambassador to Russia, Faisal Niaz Tirmizi, said in March that Islamabad had approached Moscow.
The Taliban, though, have not publicly requested Russian mediation, raising questions about how much and in what capacity Moscow can push Pakistan and Afghanistan to talks when other mediators have struggled. A complicated history adds to the challenge Russia faces. Pakistan’s military media wing, Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), said the Rawalpindi meeting discussed issues of “mutual interest and the regional security environment, with particular emphasis on strengthening bilateral security cooperation.” The statement did not mention Afghanistan and neither Russian officials nor the Taliban have disclosed what the intelligence chiefs discussed.
Moscow has, however, voiced concern about the fighting. The UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) said Pakistani strikes between September 30 and October 1 killed at least 10 civilians, mostly children. In decades past, the idea of Russia mediating between Pakistan and the Taliban might have been unthinkable.
Throughout the Cold War and even after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia was – and remains in many ways – one of the closest strategic and military partners of India, the neighbour Pakistan has fought multiple wars against. While in Afghanistan, Russia backed the Northern Alliance against the Taliban throughout the 1990s. But in recent years, Russia has significantly strengthened relations with both Pakistan and the Taliban.
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