President Donald Trump has long openly coveted winning the Nobel Peace Prize, but this year the possibility seems further away than ever—with even Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s odds of winning the award being higher. Prediction market Kalshi puts Trump’s odds of winning at less than 1 percent, while Carney’s odds are at 2.6 percent. Polymarket puts both Trump and Carney’s chances at 1 percent.
Trump spent much of last year touting his efforts to broker peace deals and his claim that he had ended eight wars, and had reasonably strong odds to win. He ultimately lost the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize to Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado. Machado later presented her medal to Trump, which he accepted.
The White House later accused the Nobel Committee of putting "politics over peace" over the decision not to award Trump the 2025 prize. This year, however, Trump's chances have fallen sharply, according to prediction markets. His administration has launched a military operation in Venezuela which captured President Nicolás Maduro, and conducted strikes on Iran that sparked a wider regional conflict.
The Norwegian Nobel Committee maintains a strict secrecy rule regarding official nominee records, but the leaders of Cambodia, Israel, and Pakistan have indicated that they submitted Trump's name for the 2026 Peace Prize. Carney’s name has been floated as a potential recipient of this year’s prize. Though his odds are currently modest, they briefly reached 14 percent on Kalshi last week.
The Canadian, who took office in 2025, has pushed back against Trump, following the U.S. president’s sweeping global tariffs and his repeated suggestions that Canada could become the 51st state. The Canadian prime minister has also moved to strengthen ties with Europe amid efforts to reduce economic reliance on the U.S. Carney also gave a widely discussed speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January, in which he called for middle powers to work together amid a changing global order.
Nominations for the Nobel Peace Prize are submitted by January 31 each year. This year, the committee said 287 candidates have been nominated, of which 208 are individuals and 79 are organizations. The prediction markets currently favor Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms, a community-led aid initiative amid the ongoing civil war, to win.
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