The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) is set to announce its latest monetary policy decision today, October 22. A broad consensus among economists suggests the central bank will cut its benchmark policy rate by 100 basis points, reducing it from 37% to 36%. Following a meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) chaired by CBRT Governor Fatih Karahan, the decision will be made public at 15:00 Baku time (14:00 local time in Türkiye).
Financial markets are closely tracking the meeting, with expectations centered on whether the central bank will resume its monetary easing cycle. A consensus survey conducted by AA Finans ahead of the October meeting polled 20 economists: 19 respondents anticipate a 100 basis point reduction, while one economist projects a steeper 200 basis point cut. Should the majority expectation materialize, the one-week repo auction rate will fall from 37% to 36%.
Furthermore, survey results indicate a median rate forecast of 35% by the end of 2026. At its previous MPC meeting on September 10, the central bank opted to hold its benchmark rate steady at 37%. The overnight lending rate and overnight borrowing rate were also kept unchanged at 40% and 35.5%, respectively.
While market participants largely expect a pivot toward monetary easing this month, international financial institutions remain divided. Major investment banks, including Goldman Sachs and Societe Generale, forecast that the CBRT will maintain its policy rate at 37%, citing ongoing inflationary risks and the necessity of preserving a cautious monetary stance. For global investors, the focus extends beyond the immediate rate figure to the forward-looking guidance provided in the MPC statement.
Market analysts will scrutinize the committee’s assessments regarding inflation trends, domestic demand dynamics, liquidity conditions, and the potential trajectory of monetary tightness. The outcome is expected to trigger immediate reactions across Turkish lira exchange rates, sovereign bond yields, banking sector equities, and the broader stock market. According to the central bank's official calendar, a comprehensive summary of the October MPC meeting will be published on October 30, 2026.
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